Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales
Abstract
The recent decline and variability in Arctic winter sea ice have been viewed as a combined response to oceanic and atmospheric processes. Disentangling the relative importance of these processes is challenging due to strong ocean-atmosphere coupling. Here, we demonstrate that Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) winter sea ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric, rather than oceanic, processes. Increased transport of atmospheric heat and moisture into the BKS region increases downward longwave radiation, contributing to warming and sea ice decline. Our results reinforce the importance of atmospheric processes for Arctic winter sea ice variability and changes and have potential implications for climate and environment in the Arctic and beyond.