Biophysical and economic constraints on China's natural climate solutions

Nan Lu , Hanqin Tian , Bojie Fu , Huiqian Yu , Shilong Piao , Shiyin Chen , Ya Li , Xiaoyong Li , Mengyu Wang , Zidong Li , Lu Zhang , Philippe Ciais (1) , Pete Smith

1 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are strategies for climate mitigation in the land sector that increase carbon storage or avoid GHG emissions. Here we estimate China's historic NCS mitigation at 0.6 (0.5-0.7) PgCO₂e yr⁻¹ (95% CI) during 2000-2020 (8% of fossil CO₂ emissions in the contemporary period). Through new NCS activities, the future maximum potential for NCS is projected at 0.6 (0.3-1.0) PgCO₂e yr⁻¹ (6% of fossil CO₂ emissions) during 2020-2030 and 1.0 (0.6-1.4) PgCO₂e yr⁻¹ during 2020-2060. Of the future NCS potentials, 26-31%, 62-65% and 90-91% can be achieved at mitigation costs of US$10, US$50 and US$100 (MgCO₂e)⁻¹, respectively. Thus, NCS can contribute substantially to China's Nationally Determined Contributions over the next 10 to 40 years but require a national strategy to reach climate goals and ensure co-benefits for people and nature.

Domains: Sciences of the Universe [physics]

Nan Lu, Hanqin Tian, Bojie Fu, Huiqian Yu, Shilong Piao, et al.. Biophysical and economic constraints on China's natural climate solutions. Nature Climate Change, 2022, 12, pp.847-853. ⟨10.1038/s41558-022-01432-3⟩. ⟨insu-03824356⟩