Model simulations of short-lived climate forcers in the Arctic
Cynthia Whaley
(1)
,
Knut von Salzen
(1)
,
Rashed Mahmood
(2)
,
Tahya Weiss-Gibbons
(1)
,
Barbara Winter
(1)
,
Laura Saunders
(3)
,
Sabine Eckhardt
(4)
,
Stephen Arnold
(5)
,
Jesper Christensen
(6)
,
Mark Flanner
(7)
,
Joshua Fu
(8)
,
Michael Gauss
(9)
,
Lin Huang
(10)
,
Ulas Im
(6)
,
Zbigniew Klimont
(11)
,
Joakim Langner
(12)
,
Kathy S. Law
(13)
,
Tatsuo Onishi
(13)
,
Duncan Watson-Parris
(14)
,
Naga Oshima
(15)
,
Yiran Peng
(16)
,
David Plummer
(1)
,
Luca Pozzoli
(17)
,
Jean-Christophe Raut
(13)
,
Maria Sand
(18)
,
Julia Schmale
(19)
,
Sangeeta Sharma
(10)
,
Manu Thomas
(12)
,
Svetlana Tsyro
(9)
1
CCCma -
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
2 BSC-CNS - Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion
3 Department of Physics [Toronto]
4 NILU - Norwegian Institute for Air Research
5 SEE - School of Earth and Environment [Leeds]
6 iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change
7 CLaSP - Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering
8 The University of Tennessee [Knoxville]
9 MET - Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo]
10 ECCC - Environment and Climate Change Canada
11 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
12 SMHI - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
13 TROPO - LATMOS
14 AOPP - Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford]
15 MRI - Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba]
16 THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing]
17 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
18 CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
19 EERL - Extreme Environments Research Laboratory
2 BSC-CNS - Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion
3 Department of Physics [Toronto]
4 NILU - Norwegian Institute for Air Research
5 SEE - School of Earth and Environment [Leeds]
6 iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change
7 CLaSP - Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering
8 The University of Tennessee [Knoxville]
9 MET - Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo]
10 ECCC - Environment and Climate Change Canada
11 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
12 SMHI - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
13 TROPO - LATMOS
14 AOPP - Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford]
15 MRI - Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba]
16 THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing]
17 JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra]
18 CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo]
19 EERL - Extreme Environments Research Laboratory
Kathy S. Law
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 740774
- IdHAL : kslaw
- ORCID : 0000-0003-4479-903X
- IdRef : 130855154
Jean-Christophe Raut
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 175904
- IdHAL : jean-christophe-raut
- ORCID : 0000-0002-3552-2437
- IdRef : 14441970X
Résumé
The Arctic Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) is preparing an assessment of short-lived climate
forcers (SLCFs) to report on the distribution, trends, and impacts of SLCFs on climate, health, and ecosystems in the Arctic. As
part of this effort, several atmospheric and Earth system models were run to simulate SLCFs globally and in the Arctic.
Participating models, using the ECLIPSE v6b anthropogenic emissions, simulated atmospheric concentrations and deposition of
SLCFs such as black carbon, sulfate, ozone, methane, and ozone precursors, as well as optical properties of aerosols, and cloud
properties.
To provide confidence in the modelled impacts of SLCFs and understand their uncertainties, all model simulations were
evaluated against a vast set of measurements. These include surface monitoring networks, aircraft- and ship-based campaigns,
and ground-based and satellite remote sensing. While the focus of the AMAP SLCF report is on the near surface Arctic region,
the model evaluation includes the entire Northern Hemisphere from the surface to the upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere in
order to assess long-range transport of SLCFs in addition to the local and regional emissions.
Our results suggest that models have recently improved in their ability to simulate aerosol seasonal cycles in the Arctic.
However, the vertical distribution of black carbon still show large variability among models, sometimes varying by a couple
orders of magnitude. Generally, models show similar spatial patterns in their biases, but with greater variability in the Arctic.
Trends in Arctic surface concentrations (1990-2015) were well-modelled over that time period compared to measurements. All
showed a decrease in black carbon and sulfate over that time period, and little-to-no change in the mixing ratio of ground-level
ozone. Deposition remains a significant source of uncertainty, with large variability between models. This has implications for
the long-range transport of SLCFs in models.