Taking climate model evaluation to the next level - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles Nature Climate Change Year : 2019

Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

(1) , (2) , (3) , (4) , (5) , (4) , (6, 7) , (1, 8) , (9) , (10, 11) , (12) , (13) , (14) , (4) , (15) , (16) , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Ruth Lorenz
  • Function : Author
Eric Maloney
  • Function : Author
Gerald A. Meehl
  • Function : Author
Angeline G. Pendergrass
  • Function : Author
Robert Pincus
  • Function : Author
Alex C. Ruane
  • Function : Author
Joellen L. Russell
  • Function : Author
Benjamin M. Sanderson
  • Function : Author
Benjamin D. Santer
  • Function : Author
Steven C. Sherwood
  • Function : Author
Isla R. Simpson
  • Function : Author
Ronald J. Stouffer
  • Function : Author
Mark S. Williamson
  • Function : Author

Abstract

Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

Dates and versions

insu-03727027 , version 1 (19-07-2022)

Identifiers

Cite

Veronika Eyring, Peter M. Cox, Gregory M. Flato, Peter J. Gleckler, Gab Abramowitz, et al.. Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. Nature Climate Change, 2019, 9, pp.102-110. ⟨10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y⟩. ⟨insu-03727027⟩
3 View
0 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More