Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Journal articles

Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

Abstract : Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.
Complete list of metadata

https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03721866
Contributor : Nathalie POTHIER Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Thursday, July 14, 2022 - 7:40:09 AM
Last modification on : Friday, July 15, 2022 - 3:23:00 AM

File

Schleussner_2018_Environ._Res....
Publisher files allowed on an open archive

Licence


Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Identifiers

Citation

Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Delphine Deryng, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Fahad Saeed, et al.. Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty. Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 13, ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b⟩. ⟨insu-03721866⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

0

Files downloads

0