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Uncertainty Quantification of Eruption Source Parameters Estimated From Tephra Fall Deposits

Abstract : Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in eruption source parameters, like tephra volume, plume height, and umbrella cloud radius, is a challenge for volcano scientists because tephra deposits are often sparsely sampled due to burial, erosion, and related factors. We find that UQ is improved by coupling an advection-diffusion model with two Bayesian inversion approaches: (a) a robust but computationally expensive Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation algorithm, and (b) a more approximate but inexpensive parameter estimation algorithm combined with first-order, second-moment uncertainty estimation. We apply the two inversion methods to one sparsely sampled tephra fall unit from the 2070 BP El Misti (Peru) eruption and obtain: Tephra mass 0.78-1.4 × 1011 kg; umbrella cloud radius 4.5-16.5 km, and plume height 8-35 km (95% confidence intervals). These broad ranges demonstrate the significance of UQ for eruption classification based on mapped deposits, which has implications for hazard management.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, June 29, 2022 - 3:43:25 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, June 30, 2022 - 3:31:49 AM

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R. Constantinescu, J. T. White, C. B. Connor, A. Hopulele-Gligor, S. Charbonnier, et al.. Uncertainty Quantification of Eruption Source Parameters Estimated From Tephra Fall Deposits. Geophysical Research Letters, 2022, 49, ⟨10.1029/2021GL097425⟩. ⟨insu-03708903⟩

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