On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes

Julien Boucharel (1) , Rafael Almar (1) , Elodie Kestenare (1) , Fei-Fei Jin

1 LEGOS - Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales

This study demonstrates how the main wave regimes in the Pacific, in particular related to tropical and extratropical storm activity, are activated by different El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections patterns. By combining these robust relationships with the latest theoretical advances in ENSO research, a mathematical model of wave energy modulation is derived. It allows a better representation of wave extremes over a range of time scales wider than previously possible with the previous baseline understanding of ENSO's influence on coastal impacts. This paves the way for unprecedented seasonal to monthly forecasts of coastal hazards around the densely populated Pacific basin.

Domaines: Planète et Univers [physics]

Julien Boucharel, Rafael Almar, Elodie Kestenare, Fei-Fei Jin. On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021, 118, ⟨10.1073/pnas.2115599118⟩. ⟨insu-03671320⟩