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Journal Articles Earth System Science Data Year : 2022

Global Carbon Budget 2021

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Matthew W. Jones
  • Function : Author
Michael O'Sullivan
Robbie M. Andrew
Dorothee C. E. Bakker
  • Function : Author
Judith Hauck
  • Function : Author
Corinne Le Quéré
  • Function : Author
Glen P. Peters
Wouter Peters
Julia Pongratz
Stephen Sitch
Josep G. Canadell
  • Function : Author
Rob B. Jackson
  • Function : Author
Simone R. Alin
  • Function : Author
Peter Anthoni
Nicholas R. Bates
  • Function : Author
Meike Becker
  • Function : Author
Nicolas Bellouin
Louise P. Chini
  • Function : Author
Margot Cronin
  • Function : Author
Kim I. Currie
  • Function : Author
Laique M. Djeutchouang
  • Function : Author
Xinyu Dou
  • Function : Author
Wiley Evans
  • Function : Author
Richard A. Feely
  • Function : Author
Liang Feng
  • Function : Author
Thomas Gasser
Dennis Gilfillan
  • Function : Author
Thanos Gkritzalis
  • Function : Author
Giacomo Grassi
  • Function : Author
Luke Gregor
  • Function : Author
Nicolas Gruber
Özgür Gürses
  • Function : Author
Ian Harris
  • Function : Author
Richard A. Houghton
  • Function : Author
George C. Hurtt
  • Function : Author
Yosuke Iida
Tatiana Ilyina
Ingrid T. Luijkx
  • Function : Author
Atul Jain
Steve D. Jones
  • Function : Author
Etsushi Kato
Daniel Kennedy
  • Function : Author
Kees Klein Goldewijk
  • Function : Author
Jürgen Knauer
  • Function : Author
Jan Ivar Korsbakken
  • Function : Author
Arne Körtzinger
  • Function : Author
Peter Landschützer
Siv K. Lauvset
Nathalie Lefèvre
Sebastian Lienert
Junjie Liu
Gregg Marland
  • Function : Author
Patrick C. Mcguire
  • Function : Author
Joe R. Melton
  • Function : Author
David R. Munro
  • Function : Author
Julia E. M. S. Nabel
  • Function : Author
Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka
  • Function : Author
Yosuke Niwa
  • Function : Author
Tsuneo Ono
  • Function : Author
Denis Pierrot
  • Function : Author
Benjamin Poulter
Gregor Rehder
  • Function : Author
Laure Resplandy
Eddy Robertson
  • Function : Author
Christian Rödenbeck
Thais M. Rosan
  • Function : Author
Jörg Schwinger
Clemens Schwingshackl
  • Function : Author
Adrienne J. Sutton
  • Function : Author
Colm Sweeney
Toste Tanhua
Pieter P. Tans
  • Function : Author
Hanqin Tian
Bronte Tilbrook
Francesco Tubiello
Guido R. van Der Werf
  • Function : Author
Chisato Wada
  • Function : Author
Rik H. Wanninkhof
  • Function : Author
Andrew J. Watson
  • Function : Author
David Willis
  • Function : Author
Andrew J. Wiltshire
  • Function : Author
Wenping Yuan
Xu Yue
  • Function : Author
Sönke Zaehle

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress.

For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr-1, with a BIM of -0.8 GtC yr-1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally.

Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

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insu-03668388 , version 1 (14-05-2022)

Licence

Attribution - CC BY 4.0

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Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, et al.. Global Carbon Budget 2021. Earth System Science Data, 2022, 14, pp.1917-2005. ⟨10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022⟩. ⟨insu-03668388⟩
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