Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities

Christophe Cassou (1) , Yochanan Kushnir , Ed Hawkins , Anna Pirani (2) , Fred Kucharski , In-Sik Kang , Nico Caltabiano

1 CECI - Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes [Toulouse]
2 UPCité - Université Paris Cité

The study of Decadal Climate Variability (DCV) and Predictability is the interdisciplinary endeavor to characterize, understand, attribute, simulate, and predict the slow, multiyear variations of climate at global (e.g., the recent slowdown of global mean temperature rise in the early 2000s) and regional (e.g., decadal modulation of hurricane activity in the Atlantic, ongoing drought in California or in the Sahel in the 1970s-80s, etc.) scales. This study remains very challenging despite decades of research, extensive progress in climate system modeling, and improvements in the availability and coverage of a wide variety of observations. Considerable obstacles in applying this knowledge to actual predictions remain.

Domains: Sciences of the Universe [physics]

Christophe Cassou, Yochanan Kushnir, Ed Hawkins, Anna Pirani, Fred Kucharski, et al.. Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2018, 99, pp.479-490. ⟨10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0286.1⟩. ⟨insu-03665070⟩