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Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study

Cynthia H. Whaley 1, * Rashed Mahmood 2, 3 Knut von Salzen 1 Barbara Winter 1 Sabine Eckhardt 4 Stephen Arnold 5 Stephen Beagley 6 Silvia Becagli 7 Rong-You Chien 8 Jesper Christensen 9 Sujay M. Damani 1 Kostas Eleftheriadis 10 Nikolaos Evangeliou 4 Gregory S. Faluvegi 11, 12 Mark Flanner 13 Joshua S. Fu 8 Michael Gauss 7 Fabio Giardi 14 Wanmin Gong 6 Jens Liengaard Hjorth 9 Lin Huang 6 Ulas Im 9 Yugo Kanaya 15 Srinath Krishnan 16 Zbigniew Klimont 17 Thomas Kühn 18, 19 Joakim Langner 20 Kathy S. Law 21 Louis Marelle 22 Andreas Massling 9 Dirk Olivié 7 Tatsuo Onishi 21 Naga Oshima 23 Yiran Peng 24 David A. Plummer 1 Olga Popovicheva 25 Luca Pozzoli 26 Jean-Christophe Raut 21 Maria Sand 16 Laura N. Saunders 27 Julia Schmale 28 Sangeeta Sharma 6 Henrik Skov 9 Fumikazu Taketani 15 Manu A. Thomas 20 Rita Traversi 14 Kostas Tsigaridis 11, 12 Svetlana Tsyro 7 Steven Turnock 29, 5 Vito Vitale 26 Kaley A. Walker 27 Minqi Wang 24 Duncan Watson-Parris 30 Tahya Weiss-Gibbons 1 
* Corresponding author
LATMOS - Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales
Abstract : The Arctic atmosphere is warming rapidly and its relatively pristine environment is sensitive to the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants. While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles also play a role in Arctic climate on near-term time scales. Atmospheric modelling is critical for understanding the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere, and is used as a tool towards determining SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models, assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over four years (2008-2009 and 2014-2015) conducted for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship and aircraft-based observations. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic, though vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfire emissions remain highly uncertain processes. These need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment.
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Submitted on : Monday, November 29, 2021 - 2:01:55 PM
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Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, et al.. Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, European Geosciences Union, 2022, pp.(Discussions). ⟨10.5194/acp-2021-975⟩. ⟨insu-03454867v1⟩



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