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The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation

Nikolina Ban 1, * Cécile Caillaud 2 Erika Coppola 3 Emanuela Pichelli 3 Stefan Sobolowski 4 Marianna Adinolfi 5 Bodo Ahrens 6 Antoinette Alias 2 Ivonne Anders 7 Sophie Bastin 8 Danijel Belušić 9 Ségolène Berthou 10 Erwan Brisson 2 Rita M. Cardoso 11 Steven C. Chan 12 Ole Bøssing Christensen 13 Jesús Fernández 14 Lluís Fita 15 Thomas Frisius 16 Goran Gašparac 17 Filippo Giorgi 3 Klaus Goergen 18, 19 Jan Erik Haugen 20 Øivind Hodnebrog 21 Stergios Kartsios 22 Eleni Katragkou 22 Elizabeth J. Kendon 10 Klaus Keuler 23 Alvaro Lavin-Gullon 24 Geert Lenderink 25 David Leutwyler 26 Torge Lorenz 4 Douglas Maraun 27 Paola Mercogliano 5 Josipa Milovac 24 Hans-Juergen Panitz 28 Mario Raffa 5 Armelle Reca Remedio 16 Christoph Schär 29 Pedro M. M. Soares 11 Lidija Srnec 30 Birthe Marie Steensen 21 Paolo Stocchi 31 Merja H. Tölle 32 Heimo Truhetz 27 Jesus Vergara-Temprado 29 Hylke de Vries 25 Kirsten Warrach-Sagi 33 Volker Wulfmeyer 33 Mar Janne Zander 34 
* Corresponding author
5 REMHI - REgional Model and geo-Hydrological Impacts
CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
LATMOS - Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales
14 Santander Meteorology Group
Departamento de Matemática Aplicada y Ciencias de la Computación
Abstract : Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼ 3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40% at 12 km to ∼ −3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales.
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Submitted on : Saturday, July 24, 2021 - 6:35:38 PM
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Nikolina Ban, Cécile Caillaud, Erika Coppola, Emanuela Pichelli, Stefan Sobolowski, et al.. The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation. Climate Dynamics, Springer Verlag, 2021, 57, pp.275-302. ⟨10.1007/s00382-021-05708-w⟩. ⟨insu-03195477v2⟩



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