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Limiter l’augmentation des températures bien en dessous de 2°C : est-ce un objectif atteignable ?

Abstract : Is the goal of keeping the increase of temperatures below 2°C achievable? After a short overview of the IPCC's contribution to the issue of climate change, this article presents the constraints linked to the willingness of the negotiators of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to less than 2°C and even 1.5°C. Based on the fact that the current warming has already reached the threshold of 1°C, we present the important drivers of this warming and we put the problematic in a paleoclimatic context. The different scenarios for the future are outlined, emphasizing that the difference between scenarios 1.5 and 2°C is important for ecosystems and for humans. If only a small 0.5°C is left before reaching the first threshold, mitigation solutions must be implemented quickly for any purpose. Nevertheless, it is likely that the threshold of 1.5°C will be exceeded in the middle of the 21st century but that it is still possible to return below it before the end of the century, provided that, in parallel to drastic measures of decreasing fossil fuels, solutions of removal of carbon already present in the atmosphere were taken.
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Contributor : Joel Guiot <>
Submitted on : Friday, August 23, 2019 - 11:55:36 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, September 23, 2020 - 4:31:42 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Friday, January 10, 2020 - 10:23:32 AM

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Joel Guiot. Limiter l’augmentation des températures bien en dessous de 2°C : est-ce un objectif atteignable ?. Revue Juridique de l'Environnement, Société française pour le droit de l'environnement — SFDE, 2017, Après l’accord de Paris, quels droits face au changement climatique ?, pp.23-32. ⟨insu-02269694⟩

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