Journal articles
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
Blanca Ayarzagüena
1, 2
Lorenzo Polvani
3
Ulrike Langematz
4
Hideharu Akiyoshi
5
Slimane Bekki
6
Neal Butchart
7
Martin Dameris
8
Makoto Deushi
9
Steven Hardiman
7
Patrick Jöckel
8
Andrew Klekociuk
10, 11
Marion Marchand
6
Martine Michou
12
Olaf Morgenstern
13
Fiona O'Connor
7
Luke Oman
14
David Plummer
15
Laura Revell
16, 17
Eugene Rozanov
16, 18
David Saint-Martin
12
John Scinocca
19
Andrea Stenke
16
Kane Stone
20, 21, 22
Yousuke Yamashita
5, 23
Kohei Yoshida
9
Guang Zeng
13
Blanca Ayarzagüena 1, 2
Author
Lorenzo M. Polvani 3
Author
Ulrike Langematz 4
Author
Hideharu Akiyoshi 5
Author
Slimane Bekki 6
Author IdHAL : slimane-bekki ResearcherId : http://www.researcherid.com/rid/J-7221-2015 ORCID : https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5538-0800
Neal Butchart 7
Author
Martin Dameris 8
Author
Makoto Deushi 9
Author
Steven C. Hardiman 7
Author
Patrick Jöckel 8
Author
Andrew Klekociuk 10, 11
Author
Marion Marchand 6
Author IdHAL : marion-marchand IdRef : https://www.idref.fr/070160856 ORCID : https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2220-383X VIAF : http://viaf.org/viaf/210030347 ISNI : http://isni.org/isni/0000000432000283
Martine Michou 12
Author
Olaf Morgenstern 13
Author
Fiona M. O'Connor 7
Author
Luke D. Oman 14
Author
David A. Plummer 15
Author
Laura Revell 16, 17
Author
Eugene Rozanov 16, 18
Author
David Saint-Martin 12
Author
John Scinocca 19
Author
Andrea Stenke 16
Author
Kane Stone 20, 21, 22
Author
Yousuke Yamashita 5, 23
Author
Kohei Yoshida 9
Author
Guang Zeng 13
Author
1
Departamento Fisica de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica [Madrid] (28040 - Madrid - Spain)
- UCM - Universidad Complutense de Madrid [Madrid] (Avda. de Séneca, 2, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid - Spain)
2
IGEO - Instituto de Geociencias [Madrid] (C/Severo Ochoa 7. 28040 Madrid - Spain)
- CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (Serrano 117, 28006 Madrid - Spain)
- UCM - Universidad Complutense de Madrid [Madrid] (Avda. de Séneca, 2, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid - Spain)
3
Columbia University [New York] (Columbia University in the City of New York, 2960 Broadway, New York, NY 10027-6902 - United States)
4
Freie Universität Berlin (Kaiserswerther Str. 16-18, 14195 Berlin - Germany)
5
NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies (Tsukuba, Ibaraki - Japan)
6
STRATO - LATMOS (France)
- LATMOS - Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (11 boulevard d'Alembert
Quartier des Garennes
78280 - Guyancourt - France)
- SU - Sorbonne Université : UMR8190 (21 rue de l’École de médecine - 75006 Paris - France)
- UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines : UMR8190 (55 avenue de Paris - 78035 Versailles cedex - France)
- CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique : UMR8190 (France)
- INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers : UMR8190 (INSU-CNRS 3 rue Michel-Ange, 75794 Paris Cedex 16 - France)
7
MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre (Exeter - United Kingdom)
- United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter] (FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK - United Kingdom)
8
IPA - DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling - Germany)
- DLR - Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (Münchener Straße 20, 82234 Weßling - Germany)
9
MRI - Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan - Japan)
- JMA - Japan Meteorological Agency (1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan - Japan)
10
AAD - Australian Antarctic Division (203 Channel Highway, Kingston, Tasmania 7050 - Australia)
11
ACE-CRC - Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (Centenary Building, Grosvenor Crescent Sandy Bay Tasmania 7005 - Australia)
12
CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques (France)
- CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique : UMR3589 (France)
- Météo France (France)
13
NIWA - National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (301 Evans Bay Parade, Hataitai, Wellington 6021 - New Zealand)
14
GSFC - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Greenbelt, MD 20771 - United States)
15
Environment and Climate Change Canada (Gatineau, Québec - Canada)
16
IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (8092 Zürich - Switzerland)
- ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (Hauptgebäude, Rämistrasse 101, 8092 Zürich - Switzerland)
17
Bodeker Scientific (42 Russell Street, Alexandra 9320, Central Otago, New Zealand - New Zealand)
18
PMOD/WRC - Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (Dorfstrasse 33, CH-7260 Davos Dorf - Switzerland)
19
CCCma - Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (University of Victoria, Victoria - Canada)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (Gatineau, Québec - Canada)
20
School of Earth Sciences [Melbourne] (Parkville, VIC Australia 3010 - Australia)
- Faculty of Science [Melbourne] ( Building 155, The University of Melbourne, Masson Rd, Melbourne VIC 3052, Australia - Australia)
- University of Melbourne (Parkville VIC 3010 - Australia)
21
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (UNSW, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia - Australia)
- UNSW - University of New South Wales [Sydney] (High St Kensington, Sydney, NSW 2052 - Australia)
- ARC - Australian Research Council [Canberra] (Level 2, 11 Lancaster Place Canberra Airport ACT 2609 - Australia)
22
MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology (77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 - United States)
23
JAMSTEC - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (2-15, Natsushima-cho, Yokosuka-shi, Kanagawa, Japan - Japan)
Abstract : Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal time scales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs, and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSWs changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSWs characteristics, such as their duration and the tropospheric forcing, are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century.
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Journal articles
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https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01755048
Contributor : Catherine Cardon <>
Submitted on : Thursday, November 12, 2020 - 8:10:10 PM
Last modification on : Saturday, December 26, 2020 - 1:46:10 PM
Contributor : Catherine Cardon <>
Submitted on : Thursday, November 12, 2020 - 8:10:10 PM
Last modification on : Saturday, December 26, 2020 - 1:46:10 PM
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Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Identifiers
- HAL Id : insu-01755048, version 1
- DOI : 10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
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INSU | SU-SCIENCES | SORBONNE-UNIVERSITE | UVSQ | LATMOS | CNRS | METEO | SU-TI
Citation
Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, et al.. No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, European Geosciences Union, 2018, 18, pp.11277-11287. ⟨10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018⟩. ⟨insu-01755048⟩
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