No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI

Blanca Ayarzagüena 1, 2 Lorenzo Polvani 3 Ulrike Langematz 4 Hideharu Akiyoshi 5 Slimane Bekki 6 Neal Butchart 7 Martin Dameris 8 Makoto Deushi 9 Steven Hardiman 7 Patrick Jöckel 8 Andrew Klekociuk 10, 11 Marion Marchand 6 Martine Michou 12 Olaf Morgenstern 13 Fiona O'Connor 7 Luke Oman 14 David Plummer 15 Laura Revell 16, 17 Eugene Rozanov 16, 18 David Saint-Martin 12 John Scinocca 19 Andrea Stenke 16 Kane Stone 20, 21, 22 Yousuke Yamashita 5, 23 Kohei Yoshida 9 Guang Zeng 13
Abstract : Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal time scales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs, and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSWs changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSWs characteristics, such as their duration and the tropospheric forcing, are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century.
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Submitted on : Friday, March 30, 2018 - 11:55:13 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, May 15, 2019 - 3:49:25 AM

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Blanca Ayarzagüena, Lorenzo Polvani, Ulrike Langematz, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, et al.. No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI . Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, European Geosciences Union, 2018, 18, pp.11277-11287. ⟨10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018⟩. ⟨insu-01755048⟩

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