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Sensitivity study on the SHARE PSHA model and exploration of uncertainties on earthquake recurrence – application to France

Abstract : SUMMARY. In 2013, the SHARE project delivered a harmonized model characterizing the seismic hazard in the entire Euro-Mediterranean region. This study is led within the framework of an adhoc AFPS working group discussing the SHARE assumptions, methodologies and results for France.TheSHARE earthquake recurrence models for France rely greatly on expert opinion. A sensitivity study on some input model parametersis performed (minimum and maximum magnitudes contributing to the hazard). The impact of the fault model on the hazard is studied. Some errors in the input files are identified, a corrected hazard map is produced. In an attempt to account for the uncertainties on the source model, new recurrence curves with associated uncertainties are derivedbased on SHARE's earthquake catalog (SHEEC). The recently published SI-Hex catalog, anew unified instrumental catalog for France (Cara et al., 2015) is also used to derive alternative recurrence curves. Based on these new source models, alternativePSH estimates are obtained for France.The results show that the uncertainty on the recurrence parameters in France is large and that the impact on hazard can be so large that it should not be neglected.
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I Grigoratos, C. Beauval, Pierre-Yves Bard, Myriam Belvaux, Claudia Aristizabal. Sensitivity study on the SHARE PSHA model and exploration of uncertainties on earthquake recurrence – application to France . 9ème Colloque National AFPS2015, Nov 2015, Marne-la-Vallée, France. ⟨insu-01742609⟩

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