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Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift

Jiankai Zhang 1 Wenshou Tian 1 Fei Xie 2 Martyn Chipperfield 3 Wuhu Feng 3, 4 Seok-Woo Son 5 N. Luke Abraham 4, 6 Alexander Archibald 6, 4 Slimane Bekki 7 Neal Butchart 8 Makoto Deushi 9 Sandip Dhomse 3 Yuanyuan Han 1 Patrick Jöckel 10 Douglas Kinnison 11 Ole Kirner 12 Martine Michou 13 Olaf Morgenstern 14 Fiona O’connor 8 Giovanni Pitari 15 David Plummer 16 Laura Revell 17, 18 Eugene Rozanov 19, 17 Daniele Visioni 20, 15 Wuke Wang 21 Guang Zeng 14
1 MOE Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change
2 GCESS - College of Global Change and Earth System Science
3 ICAS - Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
4 NCAS - National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds]
5 SEES - School of Earth and Environmental Sciences [Seoul]
6 Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK]
7 STRATO - LATMOS
LATMOS - Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales
8 MOHC - Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change
9 MRI - Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba]
10 IPA - DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
11 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
12 KIT - Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
13 CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques
14 NIWA - National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington]
15 DSFC - Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences [L'Aquila]
16 Environment and Climate Change Canada
17 IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich]
18 Bodeker Scientific
19 PMOD/WRC - Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center
20 Centre of Excellence CETEMPS
21 ICGCR - Institute for Climate and Global Change Research [Nanjing]
Abstract : The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in limiting major ozone-depleting substance emissions, and consequently stratospheric ozone concentrations are expected to recover this century. However, there is a large uncertainty in the rate of regional ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we identify a Eurasia-North America dipole mode in the total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere, showing negative and positive total column ozone anomaly centres over Eurasia and North America, respectively. The positive trend of this mode explains an enhanced total column ozone decline over the Eurasian continent in the past three decades, which is closely related to the polar vortex shift towards Eurasia. Multiple chemistry-climate-model simulations indicate that the positive Eurasia-North America dipole trend in late winter is likely to continue in the near future. Our findings suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery in late winter will be sensitive not only to the ozone-depleting substance decline but also to the polar vortex changes, and could be substantially delayed in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.
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Jiankai Zhang, Wenshou Tian, Fei Xie, Martyn Chipperfield, Wuhu Feng, et al.. Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift. Nature Communications, Nature Publishing Group, 2018, 9, pp.206(2018). ⟨10.1038/s41467-017-02565-2⟩. ⟨insu-01705720⟩

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