. Herzberg-cont, Hartley bands, pp.202-241

. Matthes, 690 nm for EMAC apply at pressures lower than 70 hPa only At pressures larger than 70 hPa, there is one band extending from 250 to 690 nm CMIP6 solar forcing Author contributions This paper was initiated Andersson made WACCM simulations for Sect. 2.2 and made Fig. 15. L. Barnard contributed text to Sects. 2.2 and 3.1, and made Fig. 22. M. A. Clilverd and C. J. Rodgers led the processing and analysis of the SEM-2 MEPED precipitating electron flux data and wrote part of the text in Sect. 2.2. T. Dudok de Wit wrote parts of Sects. 1, 2.1.1, and 3 and made Figs. 1 and 21. B. Funke developed and conducted the extrapolation and scaling of geomagnetic indices, F10.7, and SSI data, made Figs and wrote parts of Sections 1-4, 6, and C?H. M. Haberreiter contributed to writing and interpretations in Sect. 2.1.1. A. Hendry developed the code for geographic-to-geomagnetic conversions with support from C Jackman provided the solar proton IPR dataset and wrote Sect. 2.2.2. M. Kretzschmar contributed to writing and interpretations in Sect. 2.1.1 and made Figs. 2?4, CESM1(WACCM) apply below ? 65 km only. The resolution of the SW radiation code above ? 65 km corresponds to the Kruschke set up and conducted the CESM1(WACCM) simulations for Sect. 2.1.3, made Figs. 6, 8, and 10?11 and contributed to the text in Sects. 2.1.3 and B. M. Kunze performed the EMAC model runs for Sect. 2.1.3, made Figs. 7 and 9, and contributed to the text in Sect. 2.1.3. U. Langematz contributed to the design, analysis, and interpretation of the CCM simulations in Sect. 2.1.3 and assisted in editing the paper. D. R. Marsh made WACCM simulations for Sect. 2.2 and provided Fig. 13. K. Matthes wrote the abstract and parts of Sects. 1?6 and A and coordinated the design, analysis, and interpretation of the CCM and libradtran simulations in Sect. 2.1.3. A. Maycock made Fig. 27 and wrote Sect, pp.23-26

P. T. Seppälä, M. A. Verronen, C. J. Clilverd, and . Rodger, Sinnhuber contributed to the analysis of the EMAC tests of the NO y UBC and wrote parts of the text in Sects. 1 and 2.2. K. Tourpali contributed to the design and analysis of the libradtran simulations and to the text in Sect. 2.1.3. I. Usoskin provided the GCR ionization data, wrote Sect. 2.2.3, and made Figs. 19 and 20. M. van de Kamp developed the MEE precipitation model and calculated the spectral parameters with support and coordination from A Verronen calculated the MEE ionization rates, provided Fig. 14, and wrote the MEE text in Sect. 2.2. S. Versick made Figs. 17 and 18, did the EMAC model setup, performed the model runs, and contributed to the analysis of the EMAC tests with the NO y UBC, I. Usoskin, and A. Scaife designed the future solar activity scenarios and assisted in editing the paper. The final solar forcing dataset for CMIP6, Misios performed the libradtran simulations and contributed to the text in Sect. 2.1.3. M. Shangguan performed the radiative forcing calculations with libradtran in Sect. 2.1.2. M.: For how long will the current grand maximum of solar activity persist?, 2008.

R. B. Alley, T. Berntsen, and N. L. Bindoff, Climate Change 2007 ? The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2007.

P. Amblard, S. Moussaoui, T. Dudok-de-wit, J. Aboudarham, M. Kretzschmar et al., The EUV??Sun as the superposition of elementary Suns, Astronomy & Astrophysics, vol.110, issue.2, pp.13-160004, 2008.
DOI : 10.1029/2004JA010765
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00325235

M. E. Andersson, P. T. Verronen, C. J. Rodger, M. A. Clilverd, and A. Seppälä, Missing driver in the Sun???Earth connection from energetic electron precipitation impacts mesospheric ozone, Nature Communications, vol.115, issue.5197, 2014.
DOI : 10.1029/2007JD008776

M. E. Andersson, P. T. Verronen, C. J. Rodger, M. A. Clilverd, W. et al., Longitudinal hotspots in the mesospheric OH variations due to energetic electron precipitation, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.14, issue.2, pp.1095-1105, 1095.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-14-1095-2014

J. G. Anet, E. V. Rozanov, S. Muthers, T. Peter, S. Brönnimann et al., Impact of a potential 21st century ???grand solar minimum??? on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.36, issue.67, pp.4420-4425, 2013.
DOI : 10.1029/2008GL037074

J. Aubert, Geomagnetic forecasts driven by thermal wind dynamics in the Earth's core, Geophys, J. Int, vol.203, pp.1738-1751, 2015.

J. Austin, K. Tourpali, E. Rozanov, H. Akiyoshi, S. Bekki et al., Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of the solar cycle in ozone and temperature, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.102, issue.C8, p.11306, 2008.
DOI : 10.1007/978-94-009-6401-3
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00287829

W. T. Ball, Y. C. Unruh, N. A. Krivova, S. Solanki, T. Wenzler et al., Reconstruction of total solar irradiance, Astron. Astrophys, vol.541, pp.4-6361, 1974.

W. T. Ball, J. D. Haigh, E. V. Rozanov, A. Kuchar, T. Sukhodolov et al., High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations, Nature Geoscience, vol.40, pp.206-209, 2016.
DOI : 10.1029/93JD02553
URL : http://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06397

L. Barnard, M. Lockwood, M. A. Hapgood, M. J. Owens, C. J. Davis et al., Predicting space climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.28, issue.A11, 2011.
DOI : 10.1088/0952-4746/28/2/R02
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL048489/pdf

J. Bartels, The standardized index, Ks, and the planetary index, Kp, IATME Bulletin, vol.12, 1949.

A. J. Baumgaertner, P. Jöckel, and C. Brühl, Energetic particle precipitation in ECHAM5/MESSy1 ? Part 1: Downward transport of upper atmospheric NO x produced by low energy electrons, Atmos. Chem. Phys, vol.95194, issue.10, pp.2729-2740, 2009.

A. J. Baumgaertner, A. Seppälä, P. Jöckel, and M. A. Clilverd, Geomagnetic activity related NO x enhancements and polar surface air temperature variability in a chemistry climate model: modulation of the NAM index, Atmos. Chem. Phys, vol.115194, issue.10, pp.4521-4531, 2011.

C. Bolduc, P. Charbonneau, R. Barnabé, and M. S. Bourqui, A Reconstruction of Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance During the Maunder Minimum, Solar Physics, vol.625, issue.8, pp.2891-2906, 2014.
DOI : 10.1086/429689

G. E. Box, G. M. Jenkins, G. C. Reinsel, and G. M. Ljung, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 2015.
DOI : 10.1002/9781118619193

P. J. Brockwell and R. A. Davis, Introduction to time series and forecasting, 2010.

P. J. Bushby, Zonal flows and grand minima in a solar dynamo model, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol.371, issue.2, pp.772-780, 2006.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2006.10706.x

R. A. Caballero-lopez and H. Moraal, Limitations of the force field equation to describe cosmic ray modulation, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.106, issue.A1, 1101.
DOI : 10.1029/2001JA000118

M. Calisto, I. Usoskin, E. Rozanov, and T. Peter, Influence of Galactic Cosmic Rays on atmospheric composition and dynamics, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.11, issue.9, pp.4547-4556, 2011.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-11-4547-2011

L. B. Callis, R. E. Boughner, D. N. Baker, R. A. Mewaldt, J. Bernard-blake et al., Precipitating electrons: Evidence for effects on mesospheric odd nitrogen, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.98, issue.1, 1901.
DOI : 10.1029/93JD00461

R. H. Cameron, M. Dasi-espuig, J. Jiang, E. I¸s?ki¸s?k, D. Schmitt et al., Limits to solar cycle predictability: Cross-equatorial flux plumes, Astronomy & Astrophysics, vol.694, pp.1410004-6361, 2013.
DOI : 10.1088/0004-637X/694/1/L11
URL : https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/2013/09/aa21981-13.pdf

P. Charbonneau, Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle, Living Reviews in Sol. Phys, vol.7, 2010.

P. Charbonneau, Solar Dynamo Theory, Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, vol.52, issue.1, pp.251-290, 2014.
DOI : 10.1146/annurev-astro-081913-040012
URL : http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-astro-081913-040012

G. Chiodo, N. Calvo, D. R. Marsh, and R. Garcia-herrera, The 11 year solar cycle signal in transient simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.35, issue.612, 2012.
DOI : 10.1029/2008GL034831

G. Chiodo, R. Garcia-herrera, N. Calvo, J. M. Vaquero, J. A. Añel et al., The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere, Environmental Research Letters, vol.11, issue.3, pp.1748-9326034015, 2016.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034015

I. Cionni, V. Eyring, J. F. Lamarque, W. J. Randel, D. S. Stevenson et al., Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys, vol.115194, issue.10, pp.11267-11292, 2011.

F. Clette, L. Svalgaard, J. M. Vaquero, and E. W. Cliver, Revisiting the Sunspot Number, Space Science Reviews, vol.736, issue.4, pp.35-103, 2014.
DOI : 10.1088/0004-637X/736/2/115
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.643.3272

E. W. Cliver, V. Boriakoff, and K. H. Bounar, Geomagnetic activity and the solar wind during the Maunder Minimum, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.125, issue.40, pp.897-900, 1998.
DOI : 10.1007/BF00154784
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/98GL00500/pdf

O. Coddington, J. L. Lean, P. Pilewskie, M. Snow, and D. Lindholm, A Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record, B. Am, Meteorol. Soc, vol.97, 1265.
DOI : 10.1175/bams-d-14-00265.1

M. V. Codrescu, T. J. Fuller-rowell, R. G. Roble, and D. S. Evans, Medium energy particle precipitation influences on the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.80, issue.6, 1997.
DOI : 10.1029/JA080i022p03148

W. D. Collins, A global signature of enhanced shortwave absorption by clouds, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.100, issue.D24, pp.31669-31679, 1998.
DOI : 10.1029/94JD02747

D. J. Cooke, J. E. Humble, M. A. Shea, D. F. Smart, N. Lund et al., On cosmic-ray cut-off terminology, Il Nuovo Cimento C, vol.34, issue.Suppl. 2, pp.213-234, 1991.
DOI : 10.5636/jgg.34.309

A. Damiani, M. Storini, M. Laurenza, R. , and C. , Solar particle effects on minor components of the Polar atmosphere, Annales Geophysicae, vol.26, issue.2, pp.361-370, 2008.
DOI : 10.5194/angeo-26-361-2008

A. Damiani, B. Funke, D. R. Marsh, M. López-puertas, M. L. Santee et al., solar proton events on chlorine species, Atmos . Chem. Phys, vol.125194, issue.10, pp.4159-4179, 2005.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-12-4159-2012
URL : https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/4159/2012/acp-12-4159-2012.pdf

A. Damiani, B. Funke, M. López-puertas, M. L. Santee, R. R. Cordero et al., Energetic particle precipitation: A major driver of the ozone budget in the Antarctic upper stratosphere, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.116, issue.D24, pp.3554-3562, 2016.
DOI : 10.1029/2011JD016075

D. P. Dee, S. M. Uppala, A. J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli et al., The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.91, issue.656, pp.553-597, 2011.
DOI : 10.1175/2008MWR2781.1

L. Desorgher, E. O. Flückiger, M. Gurtner, M. R. Moser, and R. Bütikofer, ATMOCOSMICS: A GEANT 4 CODE FOR COMPUTING THE INTERACTION OF COSMIC RAYS WITH THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE, International Journal of Modern Physics A, vol.76, issue.29, pp.6802-6804, 2005.
DOI : 10.5636/jgg.43.Supplement2_893

S. Dietmüller, P. Jöckel, H. Tost, M. Kunze, C. Gellhorn et al., A new radiation infrastructure for the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy, based on version 2.51), Geoscientific Model Development, vol.9, issue.6, pp.2209-2222, 2016.
DOI : 10.5194/gmd-9-2209-2016-supplement

T. Dudok-de-wit, A method for filling gaps in solar irradiance and solar proxy data, Astronomy & Astrophysics, vol.105, pp.4-6361, 2011.
DOI : 10.1029/2000JA000051
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01253613

T. Dudok-de-wit, G. Kopp, C. Fröhlich, and M. Schöll, Methodology to create a new total solar irradiance record: Making a composite out of multiple data records, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.35, issue.3, pp.1196-1203, 2017.
DOI : 10.1007/s10712-014-9294-y
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01478834

E. M. Dunne, H. Gordon, A. Kürten, J. Almeida, J. Duplissy et al., Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements, Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements, pp.1119-1124, 2016.
DOI : 10.1029/98JD02091
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01397769

I. Ermolli, K. Matthes, T. Dudok-de-wit, N. A. Krivova, K. Tourpali et al., Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.13, issue.8, pp.3945-3977, 2013.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01259621

D. Evans and M. Greer, Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite Space Environment Monitor ? 2: Instrument Descriptions and Archive Data Documentation, NOAA Technical Memorandum OAR version 1.4 SEC-93, 2000.

V. Eyring, S. Bony, G. A. Meehl, C. A. Senior, B. Stevens et al., Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geoscientific Model Development, vol.9, issue.5, 1937.
DOI : 10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01339069

X. Fang, C. Randall, D. Lummerzheim, S. Solomon, M. Mills et al., Electron impact ionization: A new parameterization for 100 eV to 1 MeV electrons, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.93, issue.6, 2008.
DOI : 10.1029/JA093iA09p09867

X. Fang, C. E. Randall, D. Lummerzheim, W. Wang, G. Lu et al., Parameterization of monoenergetic electron impact ionization, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.98, issue.22, 2010.
DOI : 10.1029/93JD00461

G. Feulner and S. Rahmstorf, On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.94, issue.3, 2010.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1026790416627

M. Fligge, S. K. Solanki, and Y. C. Unruh, Modelling irradiance variations from the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field, Astron. Astrophys, vol.353, pp.380-388, 2000.

P. M. Forster, V. I. Fomichev, E. Rozanov, C. Cagnazzo, A. I. Jonsson et al., Evaluation of radiation scheme performance within chemistry climate models, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.35, issue.48, pp.2156-2202, 2011.
DOI : 10.1029/2008GL035993

Y. Fouquart and B. Bonnel, Computations of solar heating of the Earth's atmosphere: A new parameterization, Beitr. Phys. Atmos, vol.53, pp.35-62, 1980.

R. A. Frahm, J. D. Winningham, J. R. Sharber, R. Link, G. Crowley et al., The diffuse aurora: A significant source of ionization in the middle atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.98, issue.D23, pp.28203-28214, 1997.
DOI : 10.1029/93JD00461

J. E. Frederick, Solar corpuscular emission and neutral chemistry in the Earth's middle atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.10, issue.19, pp.3179-3186, 1976.
DOI : 10.1029/RG010i004p00981

F. Friederich, T. Von-clarmann, B. Funke, H. Nieder, J. Orphal et al., Lifetime and production rate of NO x in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere in the polar spring/summer after the solar proton event in, Atmos. Chem. Phys, vol.135194, issue.10, pp.2531-2539, 2003.

B. Funke, M. López-puertas, S. Gil-lópez, T. Von-clarmann, G. P. Stiller et al., Downward transport of upper atmospheric NO x into the polar stratosphere and lower mesosphere during the Antarctic, J. Geophys. Res, 2002.

B. Funke, M. López-puertas, M. Garcia-comas, G. P. Stiller, T. Von-clarmann et al., Mesospheric N 2 O enhancements as observed by MIPAS on Envisat during the polar winters, Atmos. Chem. Phys, vol.85194, issue.10, pp.5787-5800, 2002.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00304226

B. Funke, A. Baumgaertner, M. Calisto, T. Egorova, C. H. Jackman et al., Composition changes after the " Halloween " solar proton event: the High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere (HEPPA) model versus MI- PAS data intercomparison study, Atmos. Chem. Phys, vol.11105194, pp.9089-9139, 2011.

B. Funke, M. López-puertas, G. P. Stiller, and T. Von-clarmann, Mesospheric and stratospheric NO y produced by energetic particle precipitation during, J. Geophys. Res, vol.119, pp.4429-4446, 2002.
DOI : 10.1002/2013jd021404
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021404/pdf

B. Funke, M. L. Puertas, L. Holt, C. E. Randall, G. P. Stiller et al., Hemispheric distributions and interannual variability of NO y produced by energetic particle precipitation in, J. Geophys. Res, vol.119, pp.13565-13582, 2002.

B. Funke, M. López-puertas, G. P. Stiller, S. Versick, and T. Von-clarmann, A semi-empirical model for mesospheric and stratospheric NO<sub><i>y</i></sub> produced by energetic particle precipitation, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.16, issue.13, pp.8667-8693, 2016.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-16-8667-2016
URL : https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-198

T. Fytterer, M. G. Mlynczak, H. Nieder, K. Pérot, M. Sinnhuber et al., Energetic particle induced intra-seasonal variability of ozone inside the Antarctic polar vortex observed in satellite data, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.15, issue.6, pp.3327-3338, 2015.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-15-3327-2015

T. Fytterer, M. L. Santee, M. Sinnhuber, W. , and S. , observations induced by geomagnetic activity, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.44, issue.5, pp.7926-7936, 2015.
DOI : 10.1109/TGRS.2006.873771
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JA021183/pdf

M. A. Giorgetta and L. Bengtsson, Potential role of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange as found in water vapor in general circulation model experiments, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.46, issue.D6, pp.6003-6019, 1999.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<2699:GQICAO>2.0.CO;2

L. Gray, A. Scaife, D. Mitchell, S. Osprey, S. Ineson et al., A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.70, issue.D14, pp.1-16, 2013.
DOI : 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0214.1

L. J. Gray, S. Rumbold, and K. P. Shine, Stratospheric Temperature and Radiative Forcing Response to 11-Year Solar Cycle Changes in Irradiance and Ozone, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol.66, issue.8, pp.2402-2417, 2009.
DOI : 10.1175/2009JAS2866.1

M. Haberreiter, M. Schöll, T. Dudok-de-wit, M. Kretzschmar, S. Misios et al., A new observational solar irradiance composite, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.570, issue.27, 2017.
DOI : 10.1051/0004-6361/201423628

J. Haigh, The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate, Science, vol.272, issue.5264, pp.981-984, 1996.
DOI : 10.1126/science.272.5264.981

J. D. Haigh, The role of stratospheric ozone in modulating the solar radiative forcing of climate, Nature, vol.370, issue.6490, pp.544-546, 1994.
DOI : 10.1038/370544a0

J. W. Harder, G. Lawrence, J. Fontenla, G. Rottman, and T. Woods, The Spectral Irradiance Monitor: Scientific Requirements, Instrument Design, and Operation Modes, Solar Physics, vol.38, issue.1-2, pp.141-167, 2005.
DOI : 10.1007/s11207-005-5007-5

J. W. Harder, J. M. Fontenla, P. Pilewskie, E. C. Richard, and T. N. Woods, Trends in solar spectral irradiance variability in the visible and infrared, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.30, issue.5, 2009.
DOI : 10.1029/2002GL016038

T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, and J. Friedman, The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, 2009.

D. F. Heath, A. J. Krueger, C. , and P. J. , Solar Proton Event: Influence on Stratospheric Ozone, Science, vol.197, issue.4306, pp.886-889, 1977.
DOI : 10.1126/science.197.4306.886

M. I. Hegglin, D. Kinnison, and D. Plummer, Historical and future ozone database (1850?2100) in support of CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss, 2017.

K. Hendrickx, L. Megner, J. Gumbel, D. E. Siskind, Y. J. Orsolini et al., Observation of 27??day solar cycles in the production and mesospheric descent of EPP-produced NO, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.15, issue.3, pp.8978-8988, 2015.
DOI : 10.1029/RG015i003p00257

L. A. Holt, C. E. Randall, E. D. Peck, D. R. Marsh, A. K. Smith et al., The influence of major sudden stratospheric warming and elevated stratopause events on the effects of energetic particle precipitation in WACCM, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.118, issue.2, pp.11636-11646, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/BF01586448

L. L. Hood, S. Misios, D. M. Mitchell, E. Rozanov, L. J. Gray et al., Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: the ozone response, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.90, issue.692, pp.2670-2689, 2015.
DOI : 10.2151/jmsj.2012-A02

R. Horne, M. Lam, and J. Green, Energetic electron precipitation from the outer radiation belt during

K. Matthes, CMIP6 solar forcing omagnetic storms, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.36, 2009.

D. V. Hoyt and K. H. Schatten, Group Sunspot Numbers: A New Solar Activity Reconstruction, Solar Physics, vol.181, issue.2, pp.491-4911005056326158, 1998.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1005056326158

J. W. Hurrell, M. M. Holland, P. R. Gent, S. Ghan, J. E. Kay et al., The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.94, issue.9, pp.1339-1360, 2013.
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1

F. Inceoglu, R. Simoniello, M. F. Knudsen, C. Karoff, J. Olsen et al., On the Current Solar Magnetic Activity in the Light of Its Behaviour During the Holocene, Solar Physics, vol.509, issue.1, pp.303-315, 2016.
DOI : 10.1086/306492

S. Ineson, A. A. Scaife, J. R. Knight, J. C. Manners, N. J. Dunstone et al., Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience, vol.4, issue.11, pp.753-757, 2011.
DOI : 10.1256/qj.04.176

S. Ineson, A. C. Maycock, L. J. Gray, A. A. Scaife, N. J. Dunstone et al., Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum, Nature Communications, vol.125, issue.7535, 2015.
DOI : 10.1002/qj.49712555506

C. H. Jackman and R. D. Mcpeters, The Effect of solar proton events on ozone and other constituents, Solar Variability and its Effects on Climate, Geophys. Monogr, vol.141, pp.305-319, 2004.

C. H. Jackman, J. E. Frederick, and R. S. Stolarski, Production of odd nitrogen in the stratosphere and mesosphere: An intercomparison of source strengths, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.10, issue.108, pp.7495-7505, 1980.
DOI : 10.1029/RG010i004p00981

C. H. Jackman, A. R. Douglass, R. B. Rood, R. D. Mcpeters, M. et al., Effect of solar proton events on the middle atmosphere during the past two solar cycles as computed using a two-dimensional model, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.13, issue.41, pp.7417-7428, 1990.
DOI : 10.1029/GL013i012p01264

C. H. Jackman, M. C. Cerniglia, J. E. Nielsen, D. J. Allen, J. M. Zawodny et al., Two-dimensional and three-dimensional model simulations, measurements, and interpretation of the influence of the October 1989 solar proton events on the middle atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.54, issue.1, pp.11641-11660, 1995.
DOI : 10.1016/0021-9169(92)90127-7

C. H. Jackman, R. D. Mcpeters, G. J. Labow, E. L. Fleming, C. J. Praderas et al., Northern hemisphere atmospheric effects due to the July 2000 Solar Proton Event, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.54, issue.15, pp.2883-2886, 2000.
DOI : 10.1016/0021-9169(92)90127-7

C. H. Jackman, M. T. Deland, G. J. Labow, E. L. Fleming, D. K. Weisenstein et al., The influence of the several very large solar proton events in years 2000???2003 on the neutral middle atmosphere, The Influence of the Several Very Large Solar Proton Events in Years 2000-2003 on the Neutral Middle Atmosphere, pp.445-450, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.asr.2004.09.006

C. H. Jackman, M. T. Deland, G. J. Labow, E. L. Fleming, D. K. Weisenstein et al., Neutral atmospheric influences of the solar proton events in, J. Geophys. Res, 2003.

C. H. Jackman, D. R. Marsh, F. M. Vitt, R. R. Garcia, E. L. Fleming et al., Short- and medium-term atmospheric constituent effects of very large solar proton events, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.8, issue.3, pp.765-785, 2008.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-8-765-2008
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00296446

C. H. Jackman, D. R. Marsh, F. M. Vitt, R. G. Roble, C. E. Randall et al., Northern Hemisphere atmospheric influence of the solar proton events and ground level enhancement in January 2005, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.11, issue.13, pp.6153-6166, 2005.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-11-6153-2011

C. H. Jackman, C. E. Randall, V. L. Harvey, S. Wang, E. L. Fleming et al., Middle atmospheric changes caused by the solar proton events, Atmos. Chem. Phys, vol.145194, pp.1025-1038, 1025.

C. H. Jackman, D. R. Marsh, D. E. Kinnison, C. J. Mertens, F. et al., Atmospheric changes caused by galactic cosmic rays over the period 1960???2010, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.16, issue.9, pp.5853-5866, 1960.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-16-5853-2016
URL : https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5853-2016

A. Jackson, A. R. Jonkers, and M. R. Walker, Four centuries of geomagnetic secular variation from historical records, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol.358, issue.1768, pp.957-990, 2000.
DOI : 10.1098/rsta.2000.0569

A. Jones, G. Qin, K. Strong, K. A. Walker, C. A. Mclinden et al., A global inventory of stratospheric NOy from ACE-FTS, J. Geophys. Res, vol.116, 2011.

D. E. Kinnison, G. P. Brasseur, S. Walters, R. R. Garcia, D. R. Marsh et al., Sensitivity of chemical tracers to meteorological parameters in the MOZART-3 chemical transport model, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.24, issue.4, p.20302, 2007.
DOI : 10.1080/07055900.1997.9687352
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00182478

K. Kodera, Solar cycle modulation of the North Atlantic Oscillation: Implication in the spatial structure of the NAO, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.126, issue.8, pp.59-60, 2002.
DOI : 10.1256/smsqj.56401

G. Kopp and J. L. Lean, A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.30, issue.5, 1706.
DOI : 10.1029/2002GL016038

G. Kopp, G. Lawrence, and G. And-rottman, The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM): Science Results, Solar Physics, vol.153, issue.1-2, pp.129-139, 2005.
DOI : 10.1007/s11207-005-7433-9

G. Kopp, N. Krivova, J. Lean, and C. J. Wu, The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions, Solar Physics, vol.570, issue.16, pp.2951-2965, 2016.
DOI : 10.1086/429689

M. Kremliovsky, Limits of Predictability of Solar Activity, Solar Phys, pp.371-380, 1995.

A. Krivolutsky, G. Bazilevskaya, T. Vyushkova, and G. Knyazeva, Influence of cosmic rays on chemical composition of the atmosphere: data analysis and photochemical modelling, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, vol.27, issue.6-8, pp.471-476, 2002.
DOI : 10.1016/S1474-7065(02)00028-1

A. A. Krivolutsky, A. A. Kuminov, A. A. Kukoleva, A. I. Repnev, N. K. Pereyaslova et al., Solar proton activity during cycle 23 and changes in the ozonosphere: Numerical simulation and analysis of observational data, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, vol.48, issue.4, pp.432-445, 2008.
DOI : 10.1134/S0016793208040038

N. A. Krivova, S. K. Solanki, M. Fligge, and Y. C. Unruh, Reconstruction of solar irradiance variations in cycle??23: Is solar surface magnetism the cause?, Astronomy & Astrophysics, vol.351, issue.1, pp.1-40004, 2003.
DOI : 10.1038/351042a0

N. A. Krivova, L. E. Vieira, and S. K. Solanki, Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.105, issue.A12, 2010.
DOI : 10.1029/2000JA000051
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01180736

N. A. Krivova, S. K. Solanki, and Y. C. Unruh, Towards a long-term record of solar total and spectral irradiance, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol.73, issue.2-3, pp.223-234, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jastp.2009.11.013

M. Kunze, M. Godolt, U. Langematz, J. Grenfell, A. Hamann-reinus et al., Investigating the early Earth faint young Sun problem with a general circulation model, Planetary and Space Science, vol.98
DOI : 10.1016/j.pss.2013.09.011

B. A. Laken and J. , Composite analysis with Monte Carlo methods: an example with cosmic rays and clouds, J. Space Weather Space Climate, 2013.

M. M. Lam, R. B. Horne, N. P. Meredith, S. A. Glauert, T. Moffat-griffin et al., Origin of energetic electron precipitation >30 keV into the atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.103, issue.A4, pp.0-08, 2010.
DOI : 10.1029/97JA02878

U. Langematz, A. Kubin, C. Brühl, A. Baumgaertner, U. Cubasch et al., Solar effects on chemistry and climate including ocean interactions in Climate And Weather of the Sun-Earth System (CAWSES): Highlights from a Priority Program, pp.541-571, 2013.

J. L. Lean, THE SUN'S VARIABLE RADIATION AND ITS RELEVANCE FOR EARTH, Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, vol.35, issue.1, pp.33-67, 1997.
DOI : 10.1146/annurev.astro.35.1.33

J. L. Lean, Evolution of the Sun's Spectral Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.177, issue.16, pp.2425-2428, 2000.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1004953215589

J. L. Lean and M. T. Deland, How Does the Sun???s Spectrum Vary?, Journal of Climate, vol.25, issue.7, pp.2555-2560, 2012.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00571.1

J. L. Lean and D. H. Rind, How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.35, 2006.
DOI : 10.1029/2008gl034864
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL034864/pdf

J. L. Lean and D. H. Rind, How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.53, issue.15, 2009.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1139540
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GL038932/pdf

J. L. Lean, J. Cook, W. Marquette, and A. Johannesson, Magnetic Sources of the Solar Irradiance Cycle, The Astrophysical Journal, vol.492, issue.1, pp.390-401, 1998.
DOI : 10.1086/305015

J. L. Lean, T. N. Woods, F. G. Eparvier, R. R. Meier, D. J. Strickland et al., Solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance: Present, past, and future, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.43, issue.2, 2011.
DOI : 10.1088/0953-4075/43/13/135201
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JA015901/pdf

J. Lilensten, T. Dudok-de-wit, and K. Matthes, Earth's climate response to a changing Sun, 2015.
DOI : 10.1051/978-2-7598-1733-7

L. Ljung, System Identification: Theory for the User, 1997.

M. Lockwood, R. G. Harrison, T. Woollings, and S. Solanki, Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?, Environmental Research Letters, vol.5, issue.2, pp.1748-9326, 2010.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024001

M. Lockwood, L. Barnard, H. Nevanlinna, M. J. Owens, R. G. Harrison et al., Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr ??? Part 1: A new geomagnetic data composite, Annales Geophysicae, vol.31, issue.11, pp.1957-1977, 1957.
DOI : 10.5194/angeo-31-1957-2013

M. Lockwood, H. Nevanlinna, L. Barnard, M. J. Owens, R. G. Harrison et al., Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary

K. Matthes, CMIP6 solar forcing ditions over the past 167 yr ? Part 4: Near-Earth solar wind speed, IMF, and open solar flux, pp.383-399, 2014.

M. López-puertas, B. Funke, S. Gil-lópez, T. Von-clarmann, G. P. Stiller et al., Observation of NO x Enhancement and Ozone Depletion in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres after the, J. Geophys. Res, vol.110, pp.9-43, 2003.

V. Maliniemi, T. Asikainen, and K. Mursula, Spatial distribution of Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures during different phases of the solar cycle, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.37, issue.6, pp.9752-9764, 2014.
DOI : 10.1029/2010GL044601

D. R. Marsh, S. C. Solomon, R. , and A. E. , Empirical model of nitric oxide in the lower thermosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.26, issue.4, 2004.
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511612336

D. R. Marsh, R. R. Garcia, D. E. Kinnison, B. A. Boville, F. Sassi et al., Modeling the whole atmosphere response to solar cycle changes in radiative and geomagnetic forcing, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.105, issue.5, 2007.
DOI : 10.1029/130GM14

D. R. Marsh, M. J. Mills, D. E. Kinnison, J. Lamarque, N. Calvo et al., Climate Change from 1850 to 2005 Simulated in CESM1(WACCM), Journal of Climate, vol.26, issue.19, pp.7372-7391, 2005.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00558.1

K. Matthes, K. Kodera, J. Haigh, D. Shindell, K. Shibata et al., GRIPS Solar Experiments Intercomparison Project: Initial Results, Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, vol.54, issue.2, pp.71-90, 2003.
DOI : 10.2467/mripapers.54.71

K. Matthes, Y. Kuroda, K. Kodera, and U. Langematz, Transfer of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the troposphere: Northern winter, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.66, issue.5, 2006.
DOI : 10.1029/2005JD006283

K. Matthes, D. R. Marsh, R. R. Garcia, D. E. Kinnison, F. Sassi et al., Role of the QBO in modulating the influence of the 11 year solar cycle on the atmosphere using constant forcings, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.94, issue.22, 2010.
DOI : 10.1029/2009RG000282

P. Mayaud, indices: A 100-year series characterizing the magnetic activity, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.76, issue.34, pp.6870-6874, 1972.
DOI : 10.1029/JA076i007p01837

P. Mayaud, Derivation, Meaning, and Use of Geomagnetic Indices, 1980.
DOI : 10.1029/TE043i003p00261

A. C. Maycock, S. Ineson, L. J. Gray, A. A. Scaife, J. A. Anstey et al., Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.35, issue.6, pp.9043-9058, 2015.
DOI : 10.1029/2008GL035993

A. C. Maycock, K. Matthes, S. Tegtmeier, R. Thiéblemont, and L. Hood, The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone ??? Part??1: A comparison of recently updated satellite observations, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.16, issue.15, pp.10021-10043, 2016.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-16-10021-2016-supplement

A. C. Maycock, K. Matthes, S. Tegtmeier, H. Schmidt, R. Thiéblemont et al., The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone. Part II: Analysis of global models, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, vol.5194, issue.10, pp.2017-477, 2017.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-2017-477-SC2
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01531574

B. Mayer and A. Kylling, Technical note: The libRadtran software package for radiative transfer calculations - description and examples of use, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.5, issue.7, pp.1855-1877, 1855.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-5-1855-2005
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00303886

W. E. Mcclintock, G. J. Rottman, and T. N. Woods, Solar???Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment II (Solstice II): Instrument Concept and Design, Solar Physics, vol.35, issue.1-2, pp.225-258, 2005.
DOI : 10.1007/s11207-005-7432-x

K. G. Mccracken, J. Beer, F. Steinhilber, and J. Abreu, A Phenomenological Study of the Cosmic Ray Variations over the Past 9400 Years, and Their Implications Regarding Solar Activity and the Solar Dynamo, Solar Physics, vol.457, issue.A1, pp.609-627, 2013.
DOI : 10.1051/0004-6361:20065803

C. E. Mcilwain, Coordinates for mapping the distribution of magnetically trapped particles, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.64, issue.11, pp.3681-3691, 1961.
DOI : 10.1029/JZ064i008p00877

R. D. Mcpeters, A nitric oxide increase observed following the July 1982 solar proton event, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.10, issue.7, pp.667-670, 1986.
DOI : 10.1029/GL010i004p00253

R. D. Mcpeters and C. H. Jackman, The response of ozone to solar proton events during solar cycle 21: The observations, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol.29, issue.D5, pp.7945-7954, 1985.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1972)029<1138:OMITMD>2.0.CO;2

R. D. Mcpeters, C. H. Jackman, and E. G. Stassinopoulos, Observations of ozone depletion associated with solar proton events, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.29, issue.3, pp.12071-12081, 1981.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1972)029<1138:OMITMD>2.0.CO;2

G. A. Meehl, J. M. Arblaster, and D. R. Marsh, Could a future ???Grand Solar Minimum??? like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.330, issue.9, pp.1789-1793, 2013.
DOI : 10.1098/rsta.1990.0036

R. A. Mewaldt, C. M. Cohen, A. W. Labrador, R. A. Leske, G. M. Mason et al., Proton, helium and electron spectra during the large solar particle events of, J. Geophys. Res, vol.110, pp.9-18, 2003.

I. A. Mironova, K. L. Aplin, F. Arnold, G. A. Bazilevskaya, R. G. Harrison et al., Energetic Particle Influence on the Earth???s Atmosphere, Space Science Reviews, vol.321, issue.26, pp.1-96, 2015.
DOI : 10.1038/321503a0

S. Misios, D. M. Mitchell, L. J. Gray, K. Tourpali, K. Matthes et al., Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.8, issue.695, pp.928-941, 2016.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0336:tsciai>2.0.CO;2

D. M. Mitchell, L. J. Gray, M. Fujiwara, T. Hibino, J. Anstey et al., Signatures of naturally induced variability in the atmosphere using multiple reanalysis datasets, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.625, issue.691, pp.2011-2031, 2015.
DOI : 10.1086/429689

D. M. Mitchell, S. Misios, L. J. Gray, K. Tourpali, K. Matthes et al., Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: the stratospheric pathway, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol.115, issue.691, pp.2390-2403, 2015.
DOI : 10.1029/2009JD012742

S. K. Morley, R. H. Friedel, T. E. Cayton, and E. Noveroske, A rapid, global and prolonged electron radiation belt dropout observed with the Global Positioning System constellation, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.37, issue.A4, p.6102, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/0032-0633(89)90066-4

A. Muñoz-jaramillo, M. Dasi-espuig, L. A. Balmaceda, and E. E. Deluca, SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES, The Astrophysical Journal, vol.767, issue.2, pp.252041-8205, 2013.
DOI : 10.1088/2041-8205/767/2/L25

J. J. Neal, C. J. Rodger, M. A. Clilverd, N. R. Thomson, T. Raita et al., Long-term determination of energetic electron precipitation into the atmosphere from AARDDVARK subionospheric VLF observations, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.40, issue.7, pp.2194-2211, 2015.
DOI : 10.1002/2013GL058089

R. B. Neale, J. Richter, S. Park, P. H. Lauritzen, S. J. Vavrus et al., The Mean Climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in Forced SST and Fully Coupled Experiments, Journal of Climate, vol.26, issue.14, pp.5150-5168, 2013.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00236.1

H. Nevanlinna, Results of the Helsinki magnetic observatory 1844-1912, Annales Geophysicae, vol.22, issue.5, pp.1691-1704, 1691.
DOI : 10.5194/angeo-22-1691-2004
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00317352

H. Nieder, H. Winkler, D. Marsh, and M. Sinnhuber, production due to energetic particle precipitation in the MLT region: Results from ion chemistry model studies, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.114, issue.3, pp.2137-2148, 2014.
DOI : 10.1029/2008JA013884

K. M. Nissen, K. Matthes, U. Langematz, M. , and B. , Towards a better representation of the solar cycle in general circulation models, Atmos. Chem. Phys, vol.7105194, pp.5391-5400, 2007.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00296361

D. Passos, P. Charbonneau, and P. Beaudoin, An Exploration of Non-kinematic Effects in Flux Transport Dynamos, Solar Physics, vol.725, issue.1, pp.1-22, 2012.
DOI : 10.1088/0004-637X/725/1/658

W. D. Pesnell, Predictions of Solar Cycle 24, Solar Physics, vol.8, issue.1, pp.507-532, 2012.
DOI : 10.1007/s11207-008-9252-2

K. Petrovay, Solar Cycle Prediction, Living Rev. Solar Phys, 2010.

J. M. Picone, A. E. Hedin, D. P. Drob, and A. C. Aikin, NRLMSISE-00 empirical model of the atmosphere: Statistical comparisons and scientific issues, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.85, issue.6, 1468.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0469(1965)022<0462:AROUAD>2.0.CO;2

H. S. Porter, C. H. Jackman, and A. E. Green, Efficiencies for production of atomic nitrogen and oxygen by relativistic proton impact in air, The Journal of Chemical Physics, vol.55, issue.1, pp.154-167, 1976.
DOI : 10.1103/PhysRev.125.2000

C. E. Randall, D. W. Rusch, R. M. Bevilacqua, K. W. Hoppel, and J. D. Lumpe, Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) II stratospheric, J. Geophys. Res, vol.2, issue.103, pp.28361-28371, 1993.
DOI : 10.1029/98jd02092
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/98JD02092/pdf

C. E. Randall, D. E. Siskind, and R. M. Bevilacqua, enhancements in the Southern Hemisphere Vortex in winter/spring of 2000, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.102, issue.12, pp.2385-2388, 2000.
DOI : 10.1029/96JD02971

C. E. Randall, V. L. Harvey, C. S. Singleton, S. M. Bailey, P. F. Bernath et al., Energetic particle precipitation effects on the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere in 1992???2005, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.31, issue.D3, p.8308, 1992.
DOI : 10.1029/2006JD007696

C. E. Randall, V. L. Harvey, D. E. Siskind, J. France, P. F. Bernath et al., NO x descent in the Arctic middle atmosphere in early, Geophys. Res. Lett, 2009.

N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander et al., Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.220, issue.D18, p.4407, 2003.
DOI : 10.2307/2533983

D. Reames, Particle Acceleration at the Sun and in the Heliosphere, Space Science Reviews, vol.90, issue.3/4, pp.413-491, 1999.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1005105831781

T. Reddmann, R. Ruhnke, S. Versick, and W. Kouker, Modeling disturbed stratospheric chemistry during solar-induced NO x enhancements observed with MIPAS/ENVISAT, J. Geophys. Res, vol.115, pp.0-11, 2010.
DOI : 10.1029/2009jd012569
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JD012569/pdf

M. H. Rees, Physics and chemistry of the up- per atmosphere, 1989.

G. D. Reeves, K. L. Mcadams, R. H. Friedel, O. Brien, and T. P. , Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during geomagnetic storms, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.17, issue.10, 1529.
DOI : 10.1029/98GL02509

I. Richardson and H. Cane, Near-Earth Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle Catalog and Summary of Properties, Sol. Phys, vol.23, issue.264, pp.189-237, 1996.

M. M. Rienecker, M. J. Suarez, R. Gelaro, R. Todling, J. Bacmeister et al., MERRA: NASA???s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Journal of Climate, vol.24, issue.14, pp.3624-3648, 2011.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1

D. Rind, J. Lean, J. Lerner, P. Lonergan, and A. Leboissitier, Exploring the stratospheric/tropospheric response to solar forcing, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.108, issue.C8, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jastp.2004.05.011
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008JD010114/pdf

C. J. Rodger, M. A. Clilverd, J. C. Green, and M. M. Lam, Use of POES SEM-2 observations to examine radiation belt dynamics and energetic electron precipitation into the atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.36, issue.12, p.4202, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.asr.2003.12.014

C. J. Rodger, A. J. Kavanagh, M. A. Clilverd, and S. R. Marple, Comparison between POES energetic electron precipitation observations and riometer absorptions: Implications for determining true precipitation fluxes, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.116, issue.10, pp.7810-7821, 2013.
DOI : 10.1029/2011JA016671
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JA019439/pdf

E. Roeckner, G. Bäuml, L. Bonaventura, R. Brokopf, M. Esch et al., The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5, Rep. No, vol.349, 2003.

E. Roeckner, R. Brokopf, M. Esch, M. Giorgetta, S. Hagemann et al., Sensitivity of Simulated Climate to Horizontal and Vertical Resolution in the ECHAM5 Atmosphere Model, Journal of Climate, vol.19, issue.16, pp.3771-3791, 2006.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3824.1

G. J. Rohen, C. Von-savigny, M. Sinnhuber, E. J. Llewellyn, J. W. Kaiser et al., Ozone depletion during the solar proton events of October as seen by SCIAMACHY, J. Geophys. Res, vol.110, pp.9-39, 2003.

G. Rottman, The SORCE Mission, Solar Physics, vol.110, issue.5, pp.7-25, 2005.
DOI : 10.1007/s11207-005-8112-6

E. Rozanov, M. Calisto, T. Egorova, T. Peter, and W. Schmutz, Influence of the Precipitating Energetic Particles on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate, Surveys in Geophysics, vol.115, issue.8, pp.483-501, 2012.
DOI : 10.1029/2009JA014419

D. W. Rusch, J. Gérard, S. Solomon, P. J. Crutzen, R. et al., The effect of particle precipitation events on the neutral and ion chemistry of the middle atmosphere???I. Odd nitrogen, Planetary and Space Science, vol.29, issue.7, pp.767-774, 1981.
DOI : 10.1016/0032-0633(81)90048-9

S. Salmi, P. T. Verronen, L. Thölix, E. Kyrölä, L. Backman et al., Mesosphere-to-stratosphere descent of odd nitrogen in February after sudden stratospheric warming, Atmos. Chem. Phys, vol.115194, issue.10, pp.4645-4655, 2009.

R. Sander, A. Baumgaertner, S. Gromov, H. Harder, P. Jöckel et al., The atmospheric chemistry box model CAABA/MECCA-3.0, Geosci. Model Dev, pp.373-380, 2011.
DOI : 10.5194/gmd-4-373-2011

S. P. Sander, J. Abbatt, J. R. Barker, J. B. Burkholder, R. R. Friedl et al., Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Atmospheric Studies, Tech. Rep. Evaluation No, vol.17, pp.10-16, 2011.

A. A. Scaife, S. Ineson, J. R. Knight, L. Gray, K. Kodera et al., A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.23, issue.2, pp.434-439, 2013.
DOI : 10.1175/2010JCLI3232.1

H. Schmidt, G. Brasseur, M. Charron, E. Manzini, M. Giorgetta et al., Doubling, Journal of Climate, vol.19, issue.16, pp.3903-3931, 2006.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3829.1

W. Schmutz, A. Fehlmann, W. Finsterle, G. Kopp, and G. Thuillier, Total solar irradiance measurements with PRE- MOS, AIP conference proceedings, vol.1531, p.624, 2013.

M. Schöll, T. D. De-wit, M. Kretzschmar, and M. Haberreiter, Making of a solar spectral irradiance dataset I: observations, uncertainties, and methods, Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, vol.570, issue.3, 2016.
DOI : 10.1051/0004-6361/201423628

K. Semeniuk, V. I. Fomichev, J. C. Mcconnell, C. Fu, S. M. Melo et al., Middle atmosphere response to the solar cycle in irradiance and ionizing particle precipitation, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.11, issue.10, pp.5045-5077, 2011.
DOI : 10.5194/acp-11-5045-2011

A. Seppälä and M. A. Clilverd, Energetic Particle Forcing of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere: Comparison to solar irradiance forcing, Frontiers in Physics, vol.2, issue.25, 2014.

A. Seppälä, P. T. Verronen, V. F. Sofieva, J. Tamminen, E. Kyrölä et al., Destruction of the tertiary ozone maximum during a solar proton event, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.110, issue.7, p.7804, 2006.
DOI : 10.1007/978-94-009-6401-3

A. Seppälä, C. E. Randall, M. A. Clilverd, E. Rozanov, R. et al., Geomagnetic activity and polar surface air temperature variability, J. Geophys. Res, vol.114, 2009.

A. Seppälä, K. Matthes, C. E. Randall, and I. A. Mironova, What is the solar influence on climate? Overview of activities during CAWSES-II, Prog, Earth Planet. Sc, vol.1, issue.24, pp.40645-40659, 2014.

K. Shibata and K. Kodera, Simulation of radiative and dynamical responses of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol.67, issue.1-2, pp.125-143, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jastp.2004.07.022

D. T. Shindell, G. A. Schmidt, M. E. Mann, D. Rind, and A. Waple, Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum, Science, vol.294, issue.5549, pp.2149-2152, 2001.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1064363

M. Sinnhuber, S. Kazeminejad, and J. Wissing, Interannual variation of NOx from the lower thermosphere to the upper stratosphere in the years, J. Geophys. Res, vol.116, 1991.

M. Sinnhuber, H. Nieder, and N. Wieters, Energetic Particle Precipitation and the Chemistry of the Mesosphere/Lower Thermosphere, Surveys in Geophysics, vol.85, issue.6, pp.1281-1334, 2012.
DOI : 10.1029/JA085iA02p00687

M. Sinnhuber, F. Friederich, S. Bender, and J. Burrows, The response of mesospheric NO to geomagnetic forcing in 2002-2012 as seen by SCIAMACHY, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.118, issue.A1, pp.1281-1334, 2016.
DOI : 10.1028/jgrd.50845

D. E. Siskind, Atmospheric science across the Stratopause of Geophysical Monograph, chapt. On the coupling between middle and upper atmospheric odd nitrogen, pp.101-116, 2000.

D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, F. J. Doblas-reyes et al., Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions, Climate Dynamics, vol.135, issue.7, pp.2875-2888, 1600.
DOI : 10.1175/MWR3466.1

S. Solanki, I. Usoskin, B. Kromer, M. Schüssler, and J. Beer, Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years, Nature, vol.22, issue.7012, pp.1084-1087, 2004.
DOI : 10.1046/j.1365-246x.2000.00011.x

S. K. Solanki, N. A. Krivova, and J. D. Haigh, Solar Irradiance Variability and Climate, Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, vol.51, issue.1, pp.311-351, 2013.
DOI : 10.1146/annurev-astro-082812-141007
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01259621

S. Solomon, D. W. Rusch, J. Gérard, G. C. Reid, C. et al., The effect of particle precipitation events on the neutral and ion chemistry of the middle atmosphere: II. Odd hydrogen, Planetary and Space Science, vol.29, issue.8, pp.885-892, 1981.
DOI : 10.1016/0032-0633(81)90078-7

S. Solomon, P. J. Crutzen, R. , and R. G. , Photochemical coupling between the thermosphere and the lower atmosphere: 1. Odd nitrogen from 50 to 120 km, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.75, issue.108, pp.7206-7220, 1982.
DOI : 10.1029/JA075i031p06371

S. C. Solomon and L. Qian, Solar extreme-ultraviolet irradiance for general circulation models, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.110, issue.A3, 2005.
DOI : 10.1029/141GM11
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005JA011160/pdf

F. Steinhilber and J. Beer, Prediction of solar activity for the next 500 years, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.111, issue.A10, pp.1861-1867, 2013.
DOI : 10.1029/2005JA011500

C. St-jean and P. Charbonneau, Solar cycle modelling using spatiotemporal decomposition schemes, Journal of Computational Physics, vol.223, issue.1, pp.50-66, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jcp.2006.08.010

P. Stott, G. S. Jones, M. , and J. F. , Do Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent Climate Change?, Journal of Climate, vol.16, issue.24, pp.4070-40931520, 2003.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4079:DMUTSC>2.0.CO;2

D. Summers, B. Ni, M. , and N. P. , Timescales for radiation belt electron acceleration and loss due to resonant wave-particle interactions: 1. Theory, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.32, issue.3, 2007.
DOI : 10.1029/2005GL023282
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JA011801/pdf

W. Swider and T. Keneshea, Decrease of ozone and atomic oxygen in the lower mesosphere during a PCA event, Planetary and Space Science, vol.21, issue.11, pp.1969-19730032, 1973.
DOI : 10.1016/0032-0633(73)90126-8

K. F. Tapping, The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7), Space Weather, pp.394-406, 2013.

E. Thébault, International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the 12th generation, Earth Planet. Space, pp.1-19

R. Thieblemont, K. Matthes, N. Omrani, K. Kodera, and F. Hansen, Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability, Nature Communications, vol.118, issue.8268, 2015.
DOI : 10.1175/2008JCLI2147.1

S. M. Tobias, The solar cycle: parity interactions and amplitude modulation, Astron. Astrophys, vol.322, pp.1007-1017, 1997.

E. Turunen, P. T. Verronen, A. Seppälä, C. J. Rodger, M. A. Clilverd et al., Impact of different energies of precipitating particles on NOx generation in the middle and upper atmosphere during geomagnetic storms, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol.71, issue.10-11, pp.1176-1189, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jastp.2008.07.005

Y. C. Unruh, S. K. Solanki, and M. Fligge, The spectral dependence of facular contrast and solar irradiance variations, Astron. Astrophys, vol.345, pp.635-642, 1999.

I. G. Usoskin, A History of Solar Activity over Millennia, Living Rev. Solar Phys, pp.3603-3620, 2013.

I. G. Usoskin and G. A. Kovaltsov, Cosmic ray induced ionization in the atmosphere: Full modeling and practical applications, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.140, issue.D3, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/S1569-4860(04)07004-4

I. G. Usoskin, K. Alanko-huotari, G. A. Kovaltsov, and K. Mursula, Heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays: Monthly reconstruction for, J. Geophys. Res, vol.110, 1951.

I. G. Usoskin, L. Desorgher, P. Velinov, M. Storini, E. O. Flückiger et al., Abstract, Acta Geophysica, vol.110, issue.2, pp.88-101, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/S1569-4860(04)07004-4

I. G. Usoskin, G. A. Kovaltsov, and I. A. Mironova, Cosmic ray induced ionization model CRAC:CRII: An extension to the upper atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.114, issue.D10, p.10302, 2010.
DOI : 10.1007/978-1-4020-2113-8

I. G. Usoskin, G. A. Bazilevskaya, and G. A. Kovaltsov, Solar modulation parameter for cosmic rays since 1936 reconstructed from ground-based neutron monitors and ionization chambers, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.380, issue.A9, 2011.
DOI : 10.1086/170578
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JA016105/pdf

I. G. Usoskin, G. Hulot, Y. Gallet, R. Roth, A. Licht et al., Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity, Astronomy & Astrophysics, vol.140, pp.4-6361, 2014.
DOI : 10.1046/j.1365-246x.2000.00011.x

J. A. Van-allen, L. A. Frank, A. Seppälä, M. A. Clilverd, C. J. Rodger et al., Radiation Around the Earth to a Radial Distance of 107 A model providing longterm datasets of energetic electron precipitation during geomagnetic storms, Nature J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos, vol.400, issue.121, pp.430-434, 1959.

P. T. Verronen and R. Lehmann, Analysis and parameterisation of ionic reactions affecting middle atmospheric HO<sub>x</sub> and NO<sub>y</sub> during solar proton events, Annales Geophysicae, vol.31, issue.5, pp.909-956, 2013.
DOI : 10.5194/angeo-31-909-2013

P. T. Verronen, A. Seppälä, E. Kyrölä, J. Tamminen, H. M. Pickett et al., Production of odd hydrogen in the mesosphere during the solar proton event, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.33, 2005.

P. T. Verronen, M. L. Santee, G. L. Manney, R. Lehmann, S. Salmi et al., Nitric acid enhancements in the mesosphere during the solar proton events, J. Geophys. Res, 2005.

P. T. Verronen, C. J. Rodger, M. A. Clilverd, W. , and S. , First evidence of mesospheric hydroxyl response to electron precipitation from the radiation belts, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.44, issue.D7, p.7307, 2011.
DOI : 10.1109/TGRS.2006.873771

L. E. Vieira and S. K. Solanki, Evolution of the solar magnetic flux on time scales of years to??millenia, Astronomy and Astrophysics, vol.509, pp.1000004-6361, 2010.
DOI : 10.1051/0004-6361/200913276

L. E. Vieira, S. K. Solanki, N. A. Krivova, and I. Usoskin, Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene, Astronomy & Astrophysics, vol.33, pp.4-6361, 2011.
DOI : 10.1029/2006GL025942
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01253668

R. Viereck, L. Puga, D. Mcmullin, D. Judge, M. Weber et al., The Mg II index: A proxy for solar EUV, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.177, issue.7, pp.1343-1346, 2001.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1005030909779

F. M. Vitt, C. H. Jackman, T. Clarmann, N. Glatthor, M. Höpfner et al., A comparison of sources of odd nitrogen production from 1974 through 1993 in the Earth's middle atmosphere as calculated using a two-dimensional model, Experimental Evidence of Perturbed Odd Hydrogen and Chlorine Chemistry After the October 2003 Solar Proton Events, pp.6729-6739, 1996.
DOI : 10.1016/0021-9169(92)90127-7

T. Von-clarmann, B. Funke, M. López-puertas, S. Kellmann, A. Linden et al., The solar proton events in 2012 as observed by MIPAS, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.2, issue.1, pp.1-5, 2013.
DOI : 10.5194/amt-2-159-2009

Y. Wang, J. L. Lean, J. Sheeley, and N. R. , Modeling the Sun???s Magnetic Field and Irradiance since 1713, The Astrophysical Journal, vol.625, issue.1, pp.522-538, 2005.
DOI : 10.1086/429689
URL : http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1086/429689/pdf

N. W. Watkins, D. Credgington, B. Hnat, S. C. Chapman, M. P. Freeman et al., Towards Synthesis of Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Scaling Exponents: A Fractional L??vy Motion Model, Space Science Reviews, vol.371, issue.6, pp.271-284, 2005.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1978.tb05494.x

L. H. Weeks, R. S. Cuikay, C. , and J. R. , Ozone Measurements in the Mesosphere During The Solar Proton Event of 2, J. Atmos. Sci, vol.292, pp.1138-1142, 1969.

T. Wenzler, S. K. Solanki, and N. A. Krivova, Can surface magnetic fields reproduce solar irradiance variations in cycles??22 and??23?, Astronomy & Astrophysics, vol.427, issue.3, pp.1057-10610004, 2005.
DOI : 10.1051/0004-6361:20041313
URL : http://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/2005/12/aa1956.pdf

I. C. Whittaker, R. J. Gamble, C. J. Rodger, M. A. Clilverd, and J. Sauvaud, Determining the spectra of radiation belt electron losses: Fitting DEMETER electron flux observations for typical and storm times, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.113, issue.13, pp.7611-7623, 2013.
DOI : 10.1029/2007JA012903

I. C. Whittaker, M. A. Clilverd, R. , and C. J. , Characteristics of precipitating energetic electron fluxes relative to the plasmapause during geomagnetic storms, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.116, issue.1, pp.8784-8800, 2014.
DOI : 10.1002/jgra.50584

I. C. Whittaker, C. J. Rodger, M. A. Clilverd, and J. Sauvaud, The effects and correction of the geometric factor for the POES/MEPED electron flux instrument using a multisatellite comparison, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.116, issue.3, pp.6386-6404, 2014.
DOI : 10.1029/2011JA016671

H. Winkler, S. Kazeminejad, M. Sinnhuber, M. Kallenrode, and J. Notholt, Conversion of mesospheric HCl into active chlorine during the solar proton event in in the northern polar region, J. Geophys. Res, vol.114, pp.0-03, 2000.

T. N. Woods, W. K. Tobiska, G. J. Rottman, W. , and J. R. , Improved solar Lyman ?? irradiance modeling from 1947 through 1999 based on UARS observations, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.25, issue.A12, pp.27195-27216, 2000.
DOI : 10.1146/annurev.aa.25.090187.000503

T. N. Woods, F. G. Eparvier, S. M. Bailey, P. C. Chamberlin, J. Lean et al., Solar EUV Experiment (SEE): Mission overview and first results, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.511, issue.1, 2005.
DOI : 10.1029/141GM11
URL : http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004JA010765/pdf

T. Woollings, M. Lockwood, G. Masato, C. Bell, and L. Gray, Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.115, issue.612, 2010.
DOI : 10.1029/2009JD012742

K. Yando, R. M. Millan, J. C. Green, and D. S. Evans, A Monte Carlo simulation of the NOAA POES Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector instrument, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.95, issue.1, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/0029-554X(71)90033-4

A. R. Yeates, D. Nandy, and D. H. Mackay, Exploring the Physical Basis of Solar Cycle Predictions: Flux Transport Dynamics and Persistence of Memory in Advection??? versus Diffusion???dominated Solar Convection Zones, The Astrophysical Journal, vol.673, issue.1, pp.544-556, 2008.
DOI : 10.1086/524352

K. L. Yeo, N. A. Krivova, S. K. Solanki, and K. H. Glassmeier, Reconstruction of total and spectral solar irradiance from 1974 to 2013 based on KPVT, SoHO/MDI, and SDO/HMI observations, Astronomy & Astrophysics, vol.561, pp.850004-6361, 2014.
DOI : 10.1051/0004-6361/201322502

K. L. Yeo, W. T. Ball, N. A. Krivova, S. K. Solanki, Y. C. Unruh et al., UV solar irradiance in observations and the NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.570, issue.7, pp.6055-6070, 2015.
DOI : 10.1051/0004-6361/201423628

A. Zadorozhny, G. Tuchkov, V. Kikhtenko, J. La?tovi?cka, J. Bo?ka et al., Nitric oxide and lower ionosphere quantities during solar particle events of October 1989 after rocket and ground-based measurements, Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, vol.54, issue.2, pp.183-1920021, 1992.
DOI : 10.1016/0021-9169(92)90127-7

A. M. Zadorozhny, V. N. Kikhtenko, G. A. Kokin, G. A. Tuchkov, A. A. Tyutin et al., Middle atmosphere response to the solar proton events of October 1989 using the results of rocket measurements, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.56, issue.2, pp.21059-21069, 1994.
DOI : 10.1016/0021-9169(94)90213-5