Comparing the effect of remote emissions and emerging local sources of Arctic pollution on Arctic aerosols and ozone and their impacts
Résumé
Aerosol and ozone pollution in the Arctic predominantly originates from long-range pollution transport of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions from the midlatitudes. However, local emission sources such as shipping and oil and gas extraction could already have an important local or regional influence on atmospheric composition and on the Arctic energy budget, even though this influence is not well characterized. In this work, we perform quasi-hemispheric simulations of aerosols and ozone in the Arctic with the WRF-Chem model. The model is used to evaluate and compare the impacts of midlatitude anthropogenic emissions, biomass burning, and local Arctic emissions (oil and gas, shipping) in terms of atmospheric composition, cloud/aerosol interactions, pollutant deposition and radiative forcing in the Arctic. Local Arctic emissions are expected to increase in the future due to Arctic warming and reduced sea ice cover. For this reason we also compare the impact of these different sources in 2050, for a future scenario with high Arctic shipping growth and decreasing midlatitude anthropogenic emissions.