Earth's dynamo limit of predictability

G Hulot (1) , F Lhuillier (1) , J Aubert (1)

1 IPGP - Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris

Earth’s magnetic field is currently decreasing, reducing the protection it offers against charged particles coming from space and increasing space weather hazards within the near‐Earth environment. Modeling the future evolution of the field is thus of considerable interest. But how far in the future this can conceivably be done is still an open question. Here we report on the first systematic investigation of the limit of predictability of fully consistent 3D numerical dynamo simulations, and suggest that the Earth’s dynamo is likely unpredictable beyond a century, making decade timescale forecasts of the main magnetic field conceivable, but rendering longer‐term predictions, such as the timing of the next reversal, totally unpredictable

Domaines: Géophysique [physics.geo-ph]

G Hulot, F Lhuillier, J Aubert. Earth's dynamo limit of predictability. Geophysical Research Letters, 2010, 37 (6), pp.L06305. ⟨10.1029/2009GL041869⟩. ⟨insu-01409020⟩