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A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

C.D Koven 1 E.A.G. Schuur 2 C Schädel 2 T. J Bohn 3, 4 E.J. Burke 5 G. Chen 6 X Chen 3 Philippe Ciais 7, 8 G Grosse 9 J.W Harden 10 D.J Hayes 10 G Hugelius 11 E.E Jafarov 12 G Krinner 13 P Kuhry 11 D.M. Lawrence 14 A.H Macdougall 15 S.S Marchenko 16 A.D Mcguire 16 S.M Natali 17 D. J. Nicolsky 18 D Olefeldt 19 S Peng 7, 13 V. E. Romanovsky 18 K.M Schaefer 12 J Strauss 9 C.C Treat 10 M. Turetsky 20 
Abstract : We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation–Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2–33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9–112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 Pg C • C −1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH 4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH 4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH 4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10–18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.
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C.D Koven, E.A.G. Schuur, C Schädel, T. J Bohn, E.J. Burke, et al.. A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Royal Society, The, 2015, ⟨10.1098/rsta.2014.0423⟩. ⟨insu-01326116⟩



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