Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Journal articles

Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya

Abstract : In this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model to examine the sensitivity of glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal to climate change. High-resolution temperature and precipitation fields derived from gridded station data, and bias-corrected with independent station observations, are used to drive the historical model from 1961 to 2007. The model is calibrated against geode-tically derived estimates of net glacier mass change from 1992 to 2008, termini position of four large glaciers at the end of the calibration period, average velocities observed on selected debris-covered glaciers, and total glacierized area. We integrate field-based observations of glacier mass balance and ice thickness with remotely sensed observations of decadal glacier change to validate the model. Between 1961 and 2007, the mean modelled volume change over the Dudh Koshi basin is −6.4 ± 1.5 km 3 , a decrease of 15.6 % from the original estimated ice volume in 1961. Modelled glacier area change between 1961 and 2007 is −101.0 ± 11.4 km 2 , a decrease of approximately 20 % from the initial extent. The modelled glacier sensitivity to future climate change is high. Application of temperature and precipitation anomalies from warm/dry and wet/cold end-members of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 ensemble results in sustained mass loss from glaciers in the Everest region through the 21st century.
Document type :
Journal articles
Complete list of metadatas

Cited literature [96 references]  Display  Hide  Download

https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284412
Contributor : Bérénice Boeuf <>
Submitted on : Monday, March 7, 2016 - 4:40:26 PM
Last modification on : Friday, September 25, 2020 - 9:16:03 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Wednesday, June 8, 2016 - 2:50:10 PM

File

THE CRYOSPHERE - Modelling gla...
Publication funded by an institution

Identifiers

Collections

Citation

Jm Shea, W. W. Immerzeel, P Wagnon, Christian Vincent, S Bajracharya. Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya. The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2015, 9 (3), pp.1105-1128. ⟨10.5194/tc-9-1105-2015⟩. ⟨insu-01284412⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

715

Files downloads

712