Current and future contributions of local emissions from shipping and hydrocarbon extraction flaring to short lived pollutants in the Arctic
Résumé
The Arctic is increasingly open to human activity due to rapid Arctic warming, associated with decreased sea ice extent and snow cover. While pollution from in-Arctic sources is currently low, oil and gas extraction and marine traffic could become a significant future source of short-lived pollutants (aerosols, ozone) in the Arctic. It is currently unclear if these local sources might become significant compared to the long-range transport of anthropogenic pollution from the midlatitudes, which is currently the main source of Arctic pollution.
Here, we investigate the current (2012) and future (2050) impact of emissions from shipping and oil and gas extraction on Arctic aerosols and ozone, in relation to emissions from long-range transport. These impacts are determined by performing 6-month long, quasi-hemispheric simulations over the Arctic region with the WRF-Chem model. Our regional simulations include up-to-date representations of cloud/aerosol interactions and secondary organic aerosol formation developed recently for WRF-Chem. In order to determine the impact of Arctic shipping and oil and gas extraction, we use recent emission inventories by Winther et al., 2014 for local shipping and ECLIPSEv5 for oil and gas flaring. Both inventories suggest that current and future emissions from these sources are higher than previous estimates. Simulations are evaluated using measurements at Arctic surface sites and aircraft campaigns (ACCESS, YAK) in 2012. Model results are then used to assess the impact of Arctic shipping and oil and gas flaring on modeled surface aerosol and ozone concentrations, direct aerosol and ozone radiative effects, indirect aerosol radiative effects, and aerosol deposition. Results are used to determine if these local emissions are expected to have a significant influence on these quantities at the local or the regional scale, compared to emissions transported from the midlatitudes and to other emission sources, including boreal fires.