The Crisis of a Paradigm. A methodological interpretation of Tohoku and Fukushima catastrophe - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Preprints, Working Papers, ... Year :

The Crisis of a Paradigm. A methodological interpretation of Tohoku and Fukushima catastrophe

(1) , (2, 3)
1
2
3

Abstract

The 2011 Japanese disaster often presented as a 'new Chernobyl' accumulated the effects of earthquake, tsunami and of the subsequent nuclear accident at Fukushima. In the light of this disaster, we review methodological reasons both from geophysical and philosophical perspectives that lead the scientific and technological communities to flawed conclusions, prime cause of the disaster. The origin of the scientific mistake lies in several factors that challenge a dominant paradigm of seismology: the shallower part of the subduction was considered as weak, unable to produce large earthquakes; a complete breakage of the fault up to the sea-floor was excluded. Actually, it appears that such complete rupture of the subduction interface did characterize megathrust ruptures, but also that hazard evaluations and technical implementation were in line with the flawed con-sensual paradigm. We give a philosophical interpretation to this mistake by weighing the opposition between a prescriptive account and a descriptive account of the dynamics of research. We finally emphasize that imagination, boldness , and openness (especially to alternatives to consensual paradigms) appear as core values for research. Those values may function as both epistemic and ethical standards and are so essential as rigor and precision. Ability to doubt and to consider all uncertainties indeed appears essential when dealing with rare extreme natural hazards that may potentially be catastrophic.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
The_Crisis_of_a_Paradigm REVISED Jan2016.pdf (1.14 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origin : Files produced by the author(s)
Loading...

Dates and versions

insu-01143374 , version 1 (17-04-2015)
insu-01143374 , version 2 (11-01-2016)

Licence

Attribution - NonCommercial - NoDerivatives - CC BY 4.0

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : insu-01143374 , version 2

Cite

Robin Lacassin, Sylvain Lavelle. The Crisis of a Paradigm. A methodological interpretation of Tohoku and Fukushima catastrophe. 2015. ⟨insu-01143374v2⟩
477 View
745 Download

Share

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More