C. Essex, R. Mckitrick, and B. Andresen, Does a Global Temperature Exist?, Journal of Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics, vol.32, issue.1, pp.1-27, 2007.

L. B. Klyashtorin and A. A. Lyubushin, On the Coherence between Dynamics of the World Fuel Consumption and Global Temperature Anomaly, Energy and Environment, vol.14, issue.6, pp.773-782, 2003.

N. Scafetta, Empirical Evidence for a Celestial Origin of the Climate Oscillations and Its Implications, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol.72, issue.13, pp.951-970, 2010.

J. L. Lean and D. H. Rind, How Natural and Anthropogenic Influences Alter Global and Regional Surface Temperatures: 1889 to, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.35, issue.18, 2006.

J. L. Lean and D. H. Rind, How Will Earth's Surface Temperature Change in Future Decades?, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.36, issue.15, 2009.

A. A. Tsonis, K. Swanson, and S. Kravtsov, A New Dynamical Mechanism for Major Climate Shifts, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.34, 2007.

P. D. Jones, D. H. Lister, T. J. Osborn, C. Harpham, M. Salmon et al., Hemispheric and Large-Scale Land Surface Air Temperature Variations: An Extensive Revision and an Update to 2010, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.16, issue.1, pp.206-223, 2012.

R. Rohde, J. Curry, D. Groom, R. Jacobsen, R. A. Muller et al., Berkeley Earth Temperature Averaging Process, 2011.

H. , Economic Forecasts and Policy, 1961.

H. J. Lüdecke, R. Link, and F. K. Ewert, How Natural Is the Recent Centennial Warming? An Analysis of 2249

, International Journal of Modern Physics, vol.22, issue.10, pp.1139-1159, 2011.

K. L. Swanson and A. A. Tsonis, Has the Climate Recently Shifted?, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.36, 2009.

I. A. Eckley, P. Fearnhead, and R. Killick, Analysis of Change-Point Models, Bayesian Time Series Models, 2011.

K. Vasko and H. Toivonen, Estimating the Number of Segments in Time Series Data Using Permutation Tests, The 2002 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM'02), pp.466-473, 2002.

S. Kirkpatrick, C. D. Gelatt, and M. P. Vecchi, Optimization by Simulated Annealing, Science, vol.220, issue.4598, pp.671-680, 1983.

G. Bhanot, The Metropolis Algorithm, Reports on Progress in Physics, vol.51, issue.3, pp.429-457, 1988.

W. H. Press, S. A. Teukolsky, W. T. Vetterling, and B. P. Flannery, Simulated Annealing Methods, Numerical Recipes: The Art of Scientific Computting, vol.12, 2007.

D. Gibert and J. Mouël, Inversion of Polar Motion Data: Chandler Wobble, Phase Jumps, and Geomagnetic Jerks, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.113, 2008.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00348004

C. Jager and S. Duhau, Forecasting the Parameters of Sunspot Cycle 24 and Beyond, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, vol.71, issue.2, pp.239-245, 2009.

C. T. Russell, J. G. Luhmann, and L. K. Jian, How Unprecedented a Solar Minimum, Reviews of Geophysics, vol.48, 2004.

J. A. Abreu, J. Beer, A. Ferriz-mas, K. G. Mccracken, and F. Steinhilber, Is There a Planetary Influence on Solar Activity?, Astronomy & Astrophysics, vol.548, 2012.