Journal articles
Multi-Decadal Trends of Global Surface Temperature: A Broken Line with Alternating ~30 yr Linear Segments?
Abstract : We investigate global temperature data produced by the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (CRU) and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature consortium (BEST). We first fit the 1850-2010 data with polynomials of degrees 1 to 9. A significant ~60-yr oscillation is accounted for as soon as degree 4 is reached. This oscillation is even better modeled as a broken line, more precisely a series of ~30-yr long linear segments, with slope breaks (singularities) in ~1904, ~1940, and ~1974 (±3 yr), and a possible recent occurrence at the turn of the 20th century. Oceanic indices PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) have undergone major changes (re- spectively of sign and slope) roughly at the same times as the temperature slope breaks. This can be interpreted with a system of oceanic non-linear coupled oscillators with abrupt mode shifts. Thus, the Earth's climate may have entered a new mode (a new ~30-yr episode) near the turn of the 20th century: no further temperature increase, a dominantly nega- tive PDO index and a decreasing AMO index might be expected for the next decade or two.
Cited literature [21 references]
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00944085
Contributor : Isabelle Dubigeon <>
Submitted on : Friday, August 7, 2020 - 8:08:41 AM
Last modification on : Friday, August 7, 2020 - 3:03:00 PM
Contributor : Isabelle Dubigeon <>
Submitted on : Friday, August 7, 2020 - 8:08:41 AM
Last modification on : Friday, August 7, 2020 - 3:03:00 PM
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ACS_2013070815343371.pdf
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