Impact of permafrost development on groundwater flow patterns: a numerical study considering freezing cycles on a two-dimensional vertical cut through a generic river-plain system

Abstract : The impact of glaciation cycles on groundwater flow was studied within the framework of nuclear waste storage in underground geological formations. The eastern section of the Paris Basin (a layered aquifer with impervious/pervious alternations) in France was considered for the last 120 ka. Cold periods corresponded with arid climates. The issue of talik development below water bodies was addressed. These unfrozen zones can maintain open pathways for aquifer recharge. Transient thermal evolution was simulated on a small-scale generic unit of the landscape including a "river" and "plain". Coupled thermo-hydraulic modeling and simplified conductive heat transfer were considered for a broad range of scenarios. The results showed that when considering the current limited river dimensions and purely conductive heat transfer, taliks are expected to close within a few centuries. However, including coupled advection for flows from the river to the plain (probably pertinent for the eastern Paris Basin aquifer recharge zones) strongly delays talik closure (millennium scale). The impact on regional underground flows is expected to vary from a complete stop of recharge to a reduced recharge, corresponding to the talik zones. Consequences for future modeling approaches of the Paris Basin are discussed.