Seismic activity that accompanied the effusive and explosive eruptions during the 2004-2005 period at Volcán de Colima, Mexico
Résumé
Volcán de Colima is considered the most active in Mexico. A period of large eruptive activity occurred in 2004-2005. It began as a swarm of long-period events (LPs) in late September 2004, indicating the onset of growth of a new lava dome in its crater. Subsequently, avalanches of incandescent material and pyroclastic flows during a period of approximately 2 months occurred. Then, the activity became more explosive with moderate explosions. Finally, swarms of LPs accompanied the magma ascent and extrusion of small domes and vulcanian explosions with pyroclastic flows in 2005. This eruptive period was investigated with a continuous seismic signal study, cross-correlation of LPs and autoregressive analysis of monochromatic LPs. For the vast majority of the explosions, an increase in the rate of seismic energy was observed with the Seismic Spectral Energy Measurement (SSEM) from 1 to 3 Hz, before each explosive event. This increase in energy is proportional to the increase in the rate of LPs, probably as a result of an increase in the emission rate. Applying the material failure forecasting method (FFM) and using SSEM inverse of parameter, the time of the explosions is estimated as the time when the adjusted line reaches the null value. We observe a systematic delay of a few hours between the real time of occurrence of the explosions and the estimated time. This suggests that more complex processes than pure damaging of the plug occur before the explosions. The swarms associated with the large explosions include a large proportion of LPs with similar waveforms. They form a dozen of families which stay during the whole period of activity and which indicate repetitive sources. Some of the families are active only before the explosions and could therefore be used as early warning. Monochromatic LP events occurred during this period, some of them just some hours before an explosion. However, no clear relationship between their occurrence and the explosions could be found.