D. M. Allen, D. C. Mackie, and M. Wei, Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer, southern British Columbia, Canada, Hydrogeology Journal, vol.12, issue.3, pp.270-290, 2004.
DOI : 10.1007/s10040-003-0261-9

R. G. Allen, L. S. Pereira, D. Raes, and M. S. Smith, Crop evapotranspiration . Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, in FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, 1998.

A. Bardossy and G. Pegram, Downscaling precipitation using regional climate models and circulation patterns toward hydrology, Water Resources Research, vol.34, issue.4, pp.10-1029, 2011.
DOI : 10.1029/2010WR009689

S. Brouyère, Etude et modélisation du transport et du piégeage des solutés en milieu souterrain variablement saturé (Study and modelling of transport and retardation of solutes in variably saturated media, 2001.

S. Brouyère, G. Carabin, and A. Dassargues, Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: Modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium, Hydrogeol. J, vol.12, pp.123-134, 2004.

S. Brouyère, A. Dassargues, and V. Hallet, Migration of contaminants through the unsaturated zone overlying the Hesbaye chalky aquifer in Belgium: a field investigation, Journal of Contaminant Hydrology, vol.72, issue.1-4, pp.1-4, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jconhyd.2003.10.009

A. Burton, C. G. Kilsby, H. J. Fowler, P. S. Cowpertwait, and P. E. , RainSim: A spatial???temporal stochastic rainfall modelling system, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.23, issue.12, pp.23-1356, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.04.003

A. Burton, H. J. Fowler, S. Blenkinsop, and C. G. Kilsby, Downscaling transient climate change using a Neyman???Scott Rectangular Pulses stochastic rainfall model, Journal of Hydrology, vol.381, issue.1-2, pp.18-32, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.10.031

Z. Chen, S. E. Grasby, and K. G. Osadetz, Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model, Journal of Hydrology, vol.260, issue.1-4, pp.102-117, 2002.
DOI : 10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00606-0

Z. Chen, S. E. Grasby, and K. G. Osadetz, Relation between climate variability and groundwater levels in the upper carbonate aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada, Journal of Hydrology, vol.290, issue.1-2, pp.43-62, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.11.029

J. H. Christensen and O. B. Christensen, A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century, Climatic Change, vol.433, issue.C8, pp.7-30, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7

J. H. Christensen, T. R. Carter, M. Rummukainen, and G. Amanatidis, Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project, Climatic Change, vol.427, issue.S1, pp.81-82, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-006-9211-6

P. S. Cowpertwait, Further developments of the neyman-scott clustered point process for modeling rainfall, Water Resources Research, vol.17, issue.5, pp.1431-1438, 1991.
DOI : 10.1029/91WR00479

A. Dassargues and A. Monjoie, The chalk in Belgium, in The Hydrogeology of the Chalk of the North-West Europe, pp.153-269, 1993.

A. Dassargues, J. Radu, and R. Charlier, Finite elements modelling of a large water table aquifer in transient conditions, Advances in Water Resources, vol.11, issue.2, pp.58-66, 1988.
DOI : 10.1016/0309-1708(88)90038-3

H. J. Fowler, S. Blenkinsop, and C. Tebaldi, Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling, International Journal of Climatology, vol.12, issue.12, pp.1547-1578, 2007.
DOI : 10.1002/joc.1556

P. Goderniaux, Impact of Clim. Change on Groundwater Reserves, 0190.

P. Goderniaux, S. Brouyère, H. J. Fowler, S. Blenkinsop, R. Therrien et al., How can large scale integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model be used to evaluate long term climate change impact on groundwater reserves, Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modeling: Managing Groundwater and the Environment, pp.137-140, 2009.

P. Goderniaux, S. Brouyère, H. J. Fowler, S. Blenkinsop, R. Therrien et al., Large scale surface???subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves, Journal of Hydrology, vol.373, issue.1-2, pp.122-138, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.04.017

V. Hallet, Etude de la contamination de la nappe aquifère de Hesbaye par les nitrates: hydrogéologie, hydrochimie et modélisation mathématique des e ´coulements et du transport en milieu saturé (Contamination of the Hesbaye aquifer by nitrates: hydrogeology, hydrochemistry and mathematical modeling, 1998.

M. R. Haylock, G. C. Cawley, C. Harpham, R. L. Wilby, and C. M. Goodess, Downscaling heavy precipitation over the United Kingdom: a comparison of dynamical and statistical methods and their future scenarios, International Journal of Climatology, vol.7, issue.10, pp.26-1397, 2006.
DOI : 10.1002/joc.1318

C. D. Hewitt and D. J. Griggs, Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts, Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, vol.85, issue.52, p.566, 2004.
DOI : 10.1029/2004EO520005

I. P. Holman, Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge- uncertainty, shortcomings, and the way forward?, Hydrogeology Journal, vol.137, issue.2, pp.637-647, 2006.
DOI : 10.1007/s10040-005-0467-0

I. P. Holman, D. Tascone, and T. M. Hess, Compara????o de m??todos de regionaliza????o estoc??sticos e determin??sticos para a modela????o da recarga potencial de ??guas subterr??neas em condi????es de altera????es clim??ticas em Anglia Oriental, Reino Unido: implica????es para a gest??o dos recursos h??dricos subterr??neos, Hydrogeology Journal, vol.15, issue.5, pp.1629-1641, 2009.
DOI : 10.1007/s10040-009-0457-8

D. Jacob, An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate, Climatic Change, vol.34, issue.D18, pp.81-112, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-006-9213-4

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00195047

F. Johnson and A. Sharma, Accounting for interannual variability: A comparison of options for water resources climate change impact assessments, Water Resources Research, vol.22, issue.11, pp.10-1029, 2011.
DOI : 10.1029/2010WR009272

P. D. Jones, C. G. Kilsby, C. Harpham, V. Glenis, and A. Burton, UK Climate Projections Science Report: Projections of Future Daily Climate for the UK From the Weather Generator, 2009.

R. W. Katz and M. B. Parlange, Overdispersion Phenomenon in Stochastic Modeling of Precipitation, Journal of Climate, vol.11, issue.4, pp.591-601, 1998.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0591:OPISMO>2.0.CO;2

A. L. Kay, H. N. Davies, V. A. Bell, and R. G. Jones, Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England, Climatic Change, vol.330, issue.16, pp.41-63, 2009.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-008-9471-4

C. G. Kilsby, P. D. Jones, A. Burton, A. C. Ford, H. J. Fowler et al., A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.22, issue.12, pp.22-1705, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.02.005

K. J. Kristensen and S. E. Jensen, A Model For Estimating Actual Evapotranspiration From Potential Evapotranspiration, Nord. Hydrol, vol.6, pp.170-188, 1975.

Q. Li, A. J. Unger, E. A. Sudicky, D. Kassenaar, E. J. Wexler et al., Simulating the multi-seasonal response of a large-scale watershed with a 3D physically-based hydrologic model, Journal of Hydrology, vol.357, issue.3-4, pp.3-4, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.05.024

H. A. Loáiciga, Climate Change and Ground Water, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, vol.97, issue.1, pp.30-41, 2003.
DOI : 10.1126/science.289.5477.284

H. A. Loáiciga, D. R. Maidment, and J. B. Valdes, Climate-change impacts in a regional karst aquifer, J. Hydrol, vol.267, pp.173-194, 2000.

T. D. Mitchell, Pattern scaling: An examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates, Climatic Change, vol.60, issue.3, pp.217-242, 2003.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1026035305597

B. L. Morris, A. R. Lawrence, P. J. Chilton, B. Adams, R. C. Calow et al., Groundwater and its susceptibility to degradation: A global assessment of the problem and options for management. Early warning and assessment report series, pp.3-3, 2003.

N. Nakicenovic, Emissions Scenarios, A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Clim. Change, 2000.

J. Neyman and E. L. Scott, Statistical approach to problems of cosmology, J. R. Stat. Soc., Ser. B, vol.20, issue.1, pp.1-43, 1958.

G. C. Ng, D. Mclaughlin, D. Entekhabi, and B. R. Scanlon, Probabilistic analysis of the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge, Water Resources Research, vol.33, issue.3, pp.750210-1029, 2010.
DOI : 10.1029/2009WR007904

P. Orban, J. Batlle-aguilar, P. Goderniaux, A. Dassargues, and S. Brouyère, Description of hydrogeological conditions in the Geer sub-catchment and synthesis of available data for groundwater modelling, Deliverable R3, AquaTerra, vol.16, 2006.

P. Orban, S. Brouyère, J. Batlle-aguilar, J. Couturier, P. Goderniaux et al., Regional transport modelling for nitrate trend assessment and forecasting in a chalk aquifer, Journal of Contaminant Hydrology, vol.118, issue.1-2, pp.79-93, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jconhyd.2010.08.008

C. Prudhomme, N. Reynard, and S. Crooks, Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now?, Hydrological Processes, vol.12, issue.213, pp.1137-1150, 2002.
DOI : 10.1002/hyp.1054

R. Rojas, S. Kahunde, L. Peeters, O. Batelaan, L. Feyen et al., Application of a multimodel approach to account for conceptual model and scenario uncertainties in groundwater modelling, Journal of Hydrology, vol.394, issue.3-4, pp.3-4, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.09.016

B. D. Santer, T. M. Wigley, M. E. Schlesinger, and J. F. Mitchell, Developing climate scenarios from equilibrium GCM results, 1990.

J. Scibek and D. M. Allen, Comparing modelled responses of two high-permeability, unconfined aquifers to predicted climate change, Global Planet, Change, vol.50, issue.12, pp.50-62, 2006.

J. Scibek and D. M. Allen, Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels, Water Resources Research, vol.12, issue.7, pp.10-1029, 2006.
DOI : 10.1029/2005WR004742

J. Scibek, D. M. Allen, A. J. Cannon, and P. H. Whitfield, Groundwater???surface water interaction under scenarios of climate change using a high-resolution transient groundwater model, Journal of Hydrology, vol.333, issue.2-4, pp.2-4, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.005

A. Serrat-capdevila, J. B. Valdés, J. G. Pérez, K. Baird, L. J. Mata et al., Modeling climate change impacts ??? and uncertainty ??? on the hydrology of a riparian system: The San Pedro Basin (Arizona/Sonora), Journal of Hydrology, vol.347, issue.1-2, pp.48-66, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.08.028

E. A. Sudicky, J. Jones, Y. Park, E. A. Brookfield, and D. Colautti, Simulating complex flow and transport dynamics in an integrated surface-subsurface modeling framework, Geosciences Journal, vol.37, issue.2, pp.107-122, 2008.
DOI : 10.1007/s12303-008-0013-x

C. Tebaldi and R. Knutti, The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol.16, issue.5529, pp.365-2053, 1857.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1061604

C. Tebaldi, D. Nychka, and L. O. Mearns, From global mean responses to regional signals of climate change: Simple pattern scaling, its limitations (or lack of) and the uncertainty in its results, Proceedings of the 18th Conference of Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, AMS Annual Meeting, 2004.

R. Therrien, R. G. Mclaren, E. A. Sudicky, and S. M. Panday, HydroGeoSphere. A Three-Dimensional Numerical Model Describing Fully-Integrated Subsurface and Surface Flow and Solute Transport, 2005.

L. Van-roosmalen, T. O. Sonnenborg, and K. H. Jensen, Impact of climate and land use change on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment, Water Resources Research, vol.30, issue.5, pp.10-1029, 2009.
DOI : 10.1029/2007WR006760

A. Visser, Comparison of methods for the detection and extrapolation of trends in groundwater quality, Journal of Environmental Monitoring, vol.37, issue.S5, pp.2030-2043, 2009.
DOI : 10.1039/b905926a

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00515611

M. Watts, C. M. Goodess, and P. D. Jones, Validation of the CRU daily weather generator, BETWIXT Technical Briefing Note, vol.4, 2004.

D. S. Wilks and R. L. Wilby, The weather generation game: a review of stochastic weather models, Progress in Physical Geography, vol.23, issue.3, pp.329-357, 1999.
DOI : 10.1191/030913399666525256

S. Woldeamlak, O. Batelaan, and F. Smedt, Effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, Hydrogeology Journal, vol.25, issue.D3, pp.891-901, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s10040-006-0145-x

I. Yusoff, K. M. Hiscock, and D. Conway, Simulation of the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources in eastern England, Geological Society, London, Special Publications, vol.193, issue.1, pp.325-344, 2002.
DOI : 10.1144/GSL.SP.2002.193.01.24