Abstract : A simple, but rather complete hydro-meteorological system for ensemble flash flood forecasting is described. Special focus is put on the use of precipitation forecasts, essentially quantitative and overall probabilistic (PQPFs). A first issue addressed concerns the matching of the time-step used by the meteorological forecasts providers (12 or 24 h) with the appropriate hydrological time-step for quick responding catchments (1 h or less). A second issue concerns the forecasts management between two updating cycles of the PQPFs. Finally, ensemble discharge forecasts for a case-study event observed in Vogüé (South-eastern France) are illustrated as an application of our flood forecasting system.
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00388763
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Submitted on : Wednesday, May 27, 2009 - 12:57:10 PM Last modification on : Wednesday, October 14, 2020 - 3:47:28 AM
Renaud Marty, Isabella Zin, Charles Obled. On adapting PQPFs to fit hydrological needs: the case of flash flood forecasting. Atmospheric Science Letters, Wiley, 2008, 9 (2), pp.73 à 79. ⟨10.1002/asl.176⟩. ⟨insu-00388763⟩