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Past and future changes in biogenic volatile organic compound emissions simulated with a global dynamic vegetation model

Abstract : Based on an interactive global biogenic emission and dynamic vegetation model, we investigate the evolution of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by the terrestrial biosphere in four scenarios: the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years BP), the preindustrial (1850s), present-day (1990s) and the future (2100). The combined effects of foliar expansion, climate change and ecosystems redistribution impact strongly on biogenic emissions. Total biogenic VOC emissions increase from 331 TgC/yr at the LGM to 702 TgC/yr at the preindustrial, 725 TgC/yr at present-day and to 1251 TgC/yr under future conditions. If the tropics remain a major source region, a substantial decrease in VOC emissions is calculated over Amazonia for 2100 due to the recession of tropical forests in response to climate change. The Northern Hemisphere becomes a significant source of VOC in the future and globally, emissions increase by 27% for isoprene and 51% for monoterpenes compared to the present.
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Juliette Lathiere, Didier Hauglustaine, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Gerhard Krinner, G. A. Folberth. Past and future changes in biogenic volatile organic compound emissions simulated with a global dynamic vegetation model. Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2005, 32 (L20818), 1 à 4 p. ⟨10.1029/2005GL024164⟩. ⟨insu-00374612⟩

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