Local site effects in Ataköy, Istanbul, Turkey, due to a future large earthquake in the Marmara Sea
Abstract
Since the 1999 Izmit and Düzce earthquakes in northwest Turkey, many seismic hazard studies have focused on the city of Istanbul. An important issue in this respect is local site effects: strong amplifications are expected at a number of locations due to the local geological conditions. In this study we estimate the local site effects in the Ataköy area (southwestern Istanbul) by applying several techniques using synthetic data (hybrid 3-D modelling and 1-D modelling) and comparing to empirical data. We apply a hybrid 3-D finite-difference method that combines a complex source and wave propagation for a regional 1-D velocity model with site effects calculated for a local 3-D velocity structure. The local velocity model is built from geological, geotechnical and geomorphological data. The results indicate that strongest spectral amplifications (SA) in the Ataköy area occur around 1 Hz and that amplification levels are largest for alluvial sites where SA reaching a factor of 1.5-2 can be expected in the case of a large earthquake. We also compare our results to H/V (horizontal to vertical component of the recorded signal) spectral ratios calculated for microtremor data recorded at 30 sites as well as to ambient noise synthetics simulated using a 1-D approach. Because the applied methods complement each other, they provide comprehensive and reliable information about the local site effects in Ataköy. Added to that, our results have significant implications for the southwestern parts of Istanbul built on similar geological formations, for which, therefore, similar SA levels are expected.
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