D. J. Frame, D. A. Stone, P. A. Stott, and M. R. Allen, Alternatives to stabilization scenarios, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.33, 2006.

P. Friedlingstein, P. Cox, R. Betts, L. Bopp, and B. Von, Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the C4MIP model intercomparison, J. Clim, vol.19, pp.3337-3353, 2006.

N. Gruber, P. Friedlingstein, C. B. Field, R. Valentini, and M. Heimann, The vulnerability of the carbon cycle in the 21st century: an assessment of carbon-climate-human interactions, The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate, and the Natural World, pp.45-76, 2004.

J. E. Hansen, M. Sato, P. Kharecha, and D. J. Beerling, Target atmospheric CO 2 : where should humanity aim, Open Atmos. Sci. J, vol.2, pp.217-231, 2008.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-00917250

A. Hooijer, S. Page, J. G. Canadell, M. Silvius, and J. Kwadijk, Current and future CO 2 emissions from drained peatlands in Southeast Asia, Biogeosci. Discuss, vol.6, pp.7207-7230, 2009.

R. A. Houghton, Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850-2000, Tellus, vol.55, pp.378-390, 2003.

, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC 2001a. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, vol.976, p.996, 2001.

F. Joos, M. Bruno, R. Fink, U. Siegenthaler, T. F. Stocker et al., An efficient and accurate representation of complex oceanic and biospheric models of anthropogenic carbon uptake, Tellus Series B-Chem. Phys. Meteorol, vol.48, pp.397-417, 1996.

C. D. Keeling, S. C. Piper, R. B. Bacastow, M. Wahlen, and T. P. Whorf, Exchanges of atmospheric CO 2 and 13 CO 2 with the terrestrial biosphere and oceans from, I. Global Aspects, SIO Reference Series, pp.1-06, 1978.

C. D. Keeling, S. C. Piper, R. B. Bacastow, M. Wahlen, and T. P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO 2 and 13 CO 2 exchange with the terrestrial biosphere and oceans from 1978 to 2000: observations and carbon cycle implications, A History of Atmospheric CO 2 and its effects on Plants, Animals, and Ecosystems, pp.83-113, 2005.

R. Knutti and G. C. Hegerl, The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes, Nat. Geosci, vol.1, pp.735-743, 2008.

W. A. Kurz, C. C. Dymond, G. Stinson, G. J. Rampley, and E. T. Neilson, Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change, Nature, vol.452, pp.987-990, 2008.

W. A. Kurz, G. Stinson, G. J. Rampley, C. C. Dymond, and E. T. Neilson, Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105, pp.1551-1555, 2008.

C. Le-quere, M. R. Raupach, J. G. Canadell, G. Marland, and L. Bopp, Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide, Nat. Geosci, vol.2, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00760186

S. Li and A. Jarvis, Long run surface temperature dynamics of an A-OGCM: the HadCM3 4xCO 2 forcing experiment revisited, Clim. Dyn, vol.33, pp.817-825, 2009.

S. Li, A. J. Jarvis, and D. T. Leedal, Are response function representations of the global carbon cycle ever interpretable? Tellus 61B, pp.361-371, 2009.

J. A. Lowe, C. Huntingford, S. C. Raper, C. D. Jones, and S. K. Liddicoat, How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming?, Environ. Res. Lett, vol.4, 2009.

H. D. Matthews, N. P. Gillett, P. A. Stott, and K. Zickfeld, The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions, Nature, vol.459, pp.829-833, 2009.

M. Meinshausen, What does a 2C target mean for greenhouse gas concentrations? A brief analysis based on multi-gas emission pathways and several climate sensitivity uncertainty estimates, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, pp.265-279, 2006.

M. Meinshausen, N. Meinshausen, W. Hare, S. C. Raper, and K. Frieler, Greenhouse gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 ? C, Nature, vol.458, pp.1158-1162, 2009.

G. Myhre, E. J. Highwood, K. P. Shine, and F. Stordal, New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett, vol.25, pp.2715-2718, 1998.

N. Nakicenovic, J. Alcamo, G. Davis, B. De-vries, and J. Fenhann, IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, vol.599, p.pp, 2000.

H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, U. Schotterer, and A. Gugelmann, Box diffusion-model to study carbon-dioxide exchange in nature, Tellus, vol.27, pp.168-192, 1975.

R. G. Prinn, Non-CO 2 greenhouse gases, The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate, and the Natural World, pp.205-216, 2004.

V. Ramanathan and Y. Feng, On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: formidable challenges ahead, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105, pp.14245-14250, 2008.

M. R. Raupach and J. G. Canadell, Carbon and the anthropocene, Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustainabil, vol.4, 2010.

M. R. Raupach, J. G. Canadell, and C. Le-quere, Anthropogenic and biophysical contributions to increasing atmospheric CO 2 growth rate and airborne fraction, Biogeosciences, vol.5, pp.1601-1613, 2008.

M. R. Raupach, G. Marland, P. Ciais, C. Le-quere, and J. G. Canadell, Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO 2 emissions, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, vol.104, pp.10288-10293, 2007.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02888539

G. H. Roe and M. B. Baker, Why is climate sensitivity so unpredictable?, Science, vol.318, pp.629-632, 2007.

H. J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. M. Wigley, and G. Yohe, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, vol.392, p.pp, 2006.

E. A. Schuur, J. Bockheim, J. G. Canadell, E. Euskirchen, and C. B. Field, Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle, BioScience, vol.58, pp.701-714, 2008.

E. A. Schuur, J. G. Vogel, K. G. Crummer, H. Lee, and J. O. Sickman, The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra, Nature, vol.459, pp.556-559, 2009.

S. Sitch, C. Huntingford, N. Gedney, P. E. Levy, and M. Lomas, Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), Global Change Biol, vol.14, pp.2015-2039, 2008.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02926845

S. Solomon, G. K. Plattner, R. Knutti, and P. Friedlingstein, Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, vol.106, pp.1704-1709, 2009.

W. L. Steffen, A. Sanderson, P. D. Tyson, J. Jager, and P. A. Matson, Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure, vol.336, p.pp, 2004.

D. I. Stern and R. K. Kaufmann, Estimates of global anthropogenic methane emissions 1860-1993, Chemosphere, vol.33, pp.159-176, 1996.

K. M. Strassmann, G. K. Plattner, and F. Joos, CO 2 and non-CO 2 radiative forcings in climate projections for twenty-first century mitigation scenarios, Clim. Dyn, vol.33, pp.737-749, 2009.

C. Tarnocai, J. G. Canadell, E. A. Schuur, P. Kuhry, and G. Mazhitova, Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region, Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles, vol.23, p.2023, 2009.

C. M. Trudinger and I. G. Enting, Comparison of formalisms for attributing responsibility for climate change: Non-linearities in the Brazilian proposal approach, Clim. Change, vol.68, pp.67-99, 2005.

B. L. Turner, R. E. Kasperson, P. A. Matson, J. J. Mccarthy, and R. W. Corell, A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, vol.100, pp.8074-8079, 2003.

K. Zickfeld, M. Eby, H. D. Matthews, and A. J. Weaver, Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, vol.106, pp.16129-16134, 2009.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/medihal-01918319

S. A. Zimov, E. A. Schuur, and F. S. Chapin, Permafrost and the global carbon budget, Science, vol.312, pp.1612-1613, 2006.