Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

Mathew Koll Roxy (1) , Kapoor Ritika (1) , Pascal Terray (2) , Raghu Murtugudde (3) , Karumuri Ashok (1) , B. N. Goswami (4)

1 CCCR - Centre for Climate Change Research [Pune]
2 PARVATI - Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts
3 ESSIC - Earth Science System Interdisciplinary Center [College Park]
4 Earth and Climate Science Department [IISER Pune]

There are large uncertainties looming over the status and fate of the South Asian summer monsoon, with several studies debating whether the monsoon is weakening or strengthening in a changing climate. Our analysis using multiple observed datasets demonstrates a significant weakening trend in summer rainfall during 1901–2012 over the central-east and northern regions of India, along the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins and the Himalayan foothills, where agriculture is still largely rain-fed. Earlier studies have suggested an increase in moisture availability and land-sea thermal gradient in the tropics due to anthropogenic warming, favouring an increase in tropical rainfall. Here we show that the land-sea thermal gradient over South Asia has been decreasing, due to rapid warming in the Indian Ocean and a relatively subdued warming over the subcontinent. Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, we provide compelling evidence that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming potentially weakens the land-sea thermal contrast, dampens the summer monsoon Hadley circulation, and thereby reduces the rainfall over parts of South Asia.

Domaines: Océan, Atmosphère

Mathew Koll Roxy, Kapoor Ritika, Pascal Terray, Raghu Murtugudde, Karumuri Ashok, et al.. Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient. Nature Communications, 2015, 6, pp.7423. ⟨10.1038/ncomms8423⟩. ⟨hal-01322870⟩