A Novel Approach for Probabilistic Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Covering Multiple Time Frames

Thomas Carriere (1) , Christophe Vernay (2) , Sébastien Pitaval (3, 4) , François-Pascal Neirac (1) , Georges Kariniotakis (1)

1 PERSEE - Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques
2 SOLAÏS
3 Third Step Energy
4 SOLAÏS

Uncertainty in the upcoming production of photovoltaic (PV) plants is a challenge for grid operations and also a source of revenue loss for PV plant operators participating in electricity markets, since they have to pay penalties for the mismatch between contracted and actual productions. Improving PV predictability is an area of intense research. In real-world applications, forecasts are often needed for different time frames (horizon, update frequency, etc.) and are derived by dedicated models for each time frame (i.e. for day ahead and for intraday trading). This can result in both different forecasted values corresponding to the same horizon and discontinuities among time-frames. In this paper we address this problem by proposing a novel seamless probabilistic forecasting approach able to cover multiple time frames. It is based on the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) model, however it is adapted to consider the most appropriate input for each horizon from a pool of available input data. It is designed to be able to start at any time of day, for any forecast horizon, making it well-suited for applications like continuous trading. It is easy to maintain as it adapts to the latest data and does not need regular retraining. We enhance short-term predictability by considering data from satellite images and in situ measurements. The proposed model has low complexity compared to benchmark models and is trivially parallelizable. It achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models developed specifically for the short term (i.e. up to 6 hours) and the day ahead. The evaluation was carried out on a real-world case comprising three PV plants in France, over a period of one year.

Mots clés: Analog-Ensemble Model; Photovoltaics; Probabilistic Forecasting; Satellite Imagery

Domaines: Energie électrique; Machine Learning [stat.ML]; Applications [stat.AP]; Optimisation et contrôle [math.OC]; Probabilités [math.PR]; Statistiques [math.ST]

Thomas Carriere, Christophe Vernay, Sébastien Pitaval, François-Pascal Neirac, Georges Kariniotakis. A Novel Approach for Probabilistic Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Covering Multiple Time Frames. 2018. ⟨hal-02043353⟩