s'authentifier
version française rss feed
HAL : hal-00667118, version 1

Fiche détaillée  Récupérer au format
Climatic Change 101, 3-4 (2010) 663-668
Climate policies as a hedge against the uncertainty on future oil supply
Julie Rozenberg 1, Stéphane Hallegatte 1, 2, Adrien Vogt-Schilb 1, Olivier Sassi 1, Céline Guivarch 1, Henri Waisman 1, Jean Charles Hourcade 1
(25/06/2010)

Despite the inextricable link between oil scarcity and climate change, the interplay between these two issues is paradoxically an underworked area. This article uses a global energy-economy model to address the link between future oil supply and climate change and assesses in a common framework both the costs of climate policies and oil scarcity. It shows that, in the context of a limited and uncertain amount of ultimately recoverable oil resources, climate policies reduce the world vulnerability to peak oil. Climate policies, therefore, appear as a hedging strategy against the uncertainty on oil resources, in addition to their main aim of avoiding dangerous climate change. This co-benefit is estimated at the net present value of US$11,500 billion. Eventually, reducing the risk of future economic losses due to oil scarcity may appear as a significant side-benefit of climate policies to many decision-makers.
1 :  Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED)
Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 – CNRS : UMR8568 – École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) – École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) – AgroParisTech
2 :  Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME)
CNRS : URA1357 – INSU – Météo France
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
Climate policies – peak oil – hedge – cost – uncertainty.
Liste des fichiers attachés à ce document : 
PDF
fulltext_4_.pdf(133.6 KB)