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Nature Climate Change 1, 3 (2011) 151-155
Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses
Stéphane Hallegatte ( ) 1, 2, Przyluski Valentin 2, Adrien Vogt-Schilb 2
(15/07/2011)

The impacts of climate change on human systems depend not only on the level of emissions but also on how inherently vulnerable these systems are to the changing climate. The large uncertainties over future development and structure of societies and economies mean that the assessment of climate change efects is complex. One way to deal with this complexity is by using scenario analysis that takes account of these socio-economic diferences. The challenge is to identify the dimensions along which societies and economies evolve over time in such a way as to cover sufciently diferent vulnerability patterns. This conceptual efort is critical for the development of informative scenarios. Here, we identify three dimensions that take into account the most relevant factors that defne the vulnerability of human systems to climate change and their ability to adapt to it.
1 :  Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME)
CNRS : URA1357 – INSU – Météo France
2 :  Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED)
Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 – CNRS : UMR8568 – École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) – École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) – AgroParisTech
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
impacts – vulnerability – adaptation – climate change – scenario – prospective – narratives
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